Heat pump market stagnation continues

The heat pump market in France has remained stagnant since 2024, due to a challenging economic environment and uncertainty around subsidies for energy renovation projects. Despite this, new policies like the SNBC3 and an electrification plan are expected to revive the market for air-source heat pumps in the coming years.

Air-source heat pumps see slow growth

According to a recent study by the Observatoire des énergies renouvelables, air-source heat pumps saw only a 0.3% increase in installations in 2025, compared to 2024. This is a significant drop from the 1,167,000 units installed in 2023, largely due to instability in government programs like MaPrimeRénov and a difficult economic climate that has dampened consumer investment.

France's reindustrialization efforts in heat pumps

Despite the slow growth, the heat pump industry in France is showing signs of reindustrialization. The country now has around thirty production sites, more than Italy and Germany. However, many of these sites rely on components manufactured in China, indicating that domestic manufacturing is still developing.

Heat pumps may help stabilize the electricity grid

Heat pumps are expected to become more connected to the electricity grid, allowing them to operate during off-peak hours when energy is cheaper. This could help balance electricity demand and supply, provided that electricity contracts are adapted to support such flexibility.

Geothermal heat pumps struggle to gain traction

In contrast to air-source heat pumps, the geothermal heat pump market has not grown and has returned to levels seen in 2017. In 2025, only around 3,000 units were sold, mostly replacing older systems. This highlights the challenges faced by geothermal energy in gaining wider adoption.

Challenges for geothermal energy adoption

Geothermal energy remains largely unknown to both the public and many professionals, including local governments and architects. The high cost of installation and limited subsidies further hinder its development, making the future of geothermal energy in France uncertain.