The drone war between Russia and Ukraine is intensifying, with winter potentially playing a decisive role. Technological advances have improved the aerial capabilities of both countries. Since the beginning of the large-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine has developed its capabilities in drones and missiles, nearly reaching the level of its Russian adversary. Russia, determined not to be outpaced, has transformed its drone arsenal through a revolution in jet aircraft technology. Ukraine's Raid unit, specialized in drones, has been a focus of interest. Created two years ago, it uses FP-2 attack drones, officially recognized by Kiev in September 2025. These drones are designed to attack fortified targets at medium range, aiming to disrupt Russian logistics to the front. Ukraine also relies on the FP-1, a long-range missile worth $75,000 (about 65,000 euros), used to attack Russian military and economic sites. According to the International Energy Agency, these attacks have led to a 7.7% decrease in Russian crude oil production over one year. Both camps are increasingly improving their ability to translate deep strikes into economic impacts. The success of Raid operations and other medium-range aerial strikes has almost stopped the advance of Russian forces. In August 2026, Russia captured only 90 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, five to six times less than in August 2025. Western officials note that the Russian army loses 6,000 more soldiers per month than it recruits. On the other hand, Moscow has missiles and cruise missiles at its disposal, allowing it to bomb any point in Ukraine since February 2022. From the first year of the conflict, Russia imported Shahed drones from Iran to increase its long-range strike capability. It has also developed a range of inexpensive combat drones, as well as its own version of the Shahed. Since May, Russian strikes have been more effective, thanks to increased targeting accuracy and the development of fast jet drones. It is planned that the Kremlin will produce 36,000 Shahed combat aircraft in 2027, 10,000 Banderol cruise missiles, and 10,000 other inexpensive Dan-T cruise missiles. These armaments could be used this winter to bomb Ukrainian electricity, heating, and drinking water networks, already heavily strained. The interception rate of Shahed drones by the Ukrainian army, which previously exceeded 90%, has dropped to 60% with the emergence of new Russian models. Russia has advantages that Ukraine does not, including a more diverse long-range weapons arsenal, a more extensive air defense network, and a less stressed society. While Ukrainian military propaganda excels at highlighting successful missions on social media, the actual impact of its drone strikes on Russia seems to be diminishing. Despite the escalation of the conflict linked to technological evolution, neither side is close to defeat or a crisis. Russia is encountering strong mobilization problems, while Ukraine has significant budget problems, needing an additional 40 billion euros in 2027. Another concern for Kiev is whether the Ukrainian population will be able to survive the approaching winter.