President Donald Trump's declining approval ratings are raising concerns about the Republican Party's chances in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new NBC News poll. Trump's approval rating among registered voters is now at 41%, a second-term low, with a majority (55%) of voters believing his policies have hurt the economy. This marks a significant increase from 48% in March, before the Iran war led to rising gas prices and other costs, making the cost of living the top concern for many voters. Democrats currently hold a 5-point lead in the battle for control of Congress, with 50% of voters favoring them over 45% for the Republicans. This is a much smaller lead than the 12-point advantage Democrats had at this point before the 2018 election, when they gained control of the House. Despite this lead, the Democratic Party is viewed more negatively than Trump and the GOP. Republicans may benefit from the fact that the fight for control of the House and especially the Senate is taking place in traditionally Republican areas. For Democrats to win the Senate, they would need to flip several states that Trump won by double digits in 2024. Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies noted that the election outcome will hinge on both the current political climate and the geographic distribution of voters. "The Republicans are still standing because of the geography in which this election will be won or lost," he said. However, the poll suggests a challenging political environment for the GOP. Longtime advantages over the Democratic Party on issues like inflation and the economy have disappeared. More than 6 in 10 voters believe the Iran war has not been worth it, and voters are not motivated by Trump's recent tax and spending legislation. Instead, Trump himself is a powerful motivator, but more so for Democrats than Republicans, as more voters, including nearly half of independents, see their vote as a signal of opposition to the president. Trump's struggles continue, with 56% of voters disapproving of his job performance, including strong disapproval from Democrats and independents. The share of voters who strongly approve of Trump, at 25%, is the second-lowest in the NBC News poll across his first and second terms. His economic policies, such as the "big, beautiful bill" tax cut and spending measure, are not resonating well with voters. A majority of voters are less likely to support a candidate who backs Trump’s policies, while his recent proposal to give $5,000 to every adult if Republicans keep control of Congress is not gaining much traction. Additionally, opposition to the Iran war remains strong, with 57% of voters less likely to support a candidate who backs the war. Despite these challenges, Democrats are not guaranteed victory. They have a narrow lead on trust in handling the economy and inflation, but Republicans still hold significant advantages on issues like crime, border security, and immigration. However, the overall political climate appears more favorable to Democrats, who are seen as more capable of addressing current issues like corruption and the war in Iran. The poll highlights a deep dissatisfaction with Trump and the Republican Party, but it does not reflect a strong endorsement of the Democratic Party. Instead, it signals a desire for change among voters who are weary of the current administration's policies and performance.