In 1992, Saudi Arabia produced nearly 4.1 million tons of wheat, an impressive figure for a country with mostly arid and desert landscapes. This achievement was made possible by drawing water from ancient, non-renewable underground sources known as fossil aquifers. At the time, domestic wheat consumption was only about 1.2 million tons, creating a large surplus. As a result, Saudi Arabia became the sixth-largest wheat exporter globally, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), during the early 1990s. The country shifted from being a wheat importer—bringing in 500,000 net tons in 1980—to an exporter of over 2 million net tons by 1992. However, this production was extremely costly. Each ton of wheat required about 480 dollars in state funding, compared to a global market price of 100 dollars. The high cost was largely due to the massive amount of water needed for irrigation, which came from deep underground sources that do not naturally replenish.
Producing a single ton of wheat in Saudi Arabia required more than 1,000 cubic meters of water, according to the magazine MEED. This is significantly more than in regions with more favorable climates, where irrigation needs are lower. The FAO estimates that more than 13.5 billion cubic meters of water were drawn annually from these non-renewable aquifers, which is equivalent to emptying about 5.4 million Olympic swimming pools each year. In some areas, water levels dropped by an average of 2.1 meters annually. By the standards of the 1990s, the FAO predicted that these water reserves would be depleted within 25 to 30 years. However, some hydrologists believed that the aquifers might last up to 50 more years. In 1994 alone, an estimated 30 billion cubic meters of water were pumped, with 90% of that coming from fossil aquifers.
To address the growing concern over water depletion, Saudi Arabia introduced a policy in 2007 through Decree No. 335, which aimed to phase out wheat production. The Public Silo Organization (GSFMO), later renamed SAGO, was tasked with gradually reducing wheat quotas by 12.5% each year, starting with the 2007/08 harvest season. The goal was to end wheat cultivation entirely by the 2015/16 season. By 2015/16, the country had become a wheat importer again, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimating that about 3 million tons of wheat were imported that year. However, the water savings expected from this shift were not as significant as anticipated. Many farmers switched to forage crops like alfalfa, which require significantly more water than wheat, prompting the government to reduce forage production by 42.5% in 2018.
Despite the policy to phase out wheat, the country has since partially lifted the de facto ban. Farmers who previously had less than 100 hectares of land are now allowed to plant wheat or forage crops on up to 50 hectares. This adjustment aims to provide alternative options for medium and small forage producers while managing water use more effectively. The shift in policy reflects the ongoing challenge of balancing agricultural production with the country's limited and non-replenishing water resources.
Saudi Arabia's Shift from Wheat Production to Water Conservation
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