El Niño intensifies globally

This year, the El Niño climate cycle is exceptionally intense, characterized by the warming of the ocean's surface, which alters global climate patterns. The phenomenon affects populations worldwide, including the Somali population, which risks experiencing flooding during the rainy season.

Somali farmers face flood risks

Nuh Adan, a farmer, said, "We are currently in the rainy season and have been warned of the risk of flooding. This is the planting season. If the river overflows and floods affect us, the consequences will be felt until the next rainy season, in March." El Niño is associated with a rise in global temperatures, and a more intense cycle intensifies the extreme weather phenomena it brings to different regions, such as drought or heavy rains.

Displaced residents fear flooding

Kamillo Muse, a resident of the Ceeynu Nasri displacement camp, shared, "We are terrified by the rains that are coming. After three years without sufficient rainfall, it seems they are going to return strongly. If it rains heavily, forget those living in the displacement camps: even people with adequate housing will be forced to flee. So, what do you think will happen to us who are in the camps?"

WMO predicts El Niño peak in December

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday that El Niño will continue to intensify until it reaches its peak in December. Antoine Grand, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Somalia, said, "This year, we are probably better prepared. We have learned from the last floods, three years ago, and we also have much more accurate data on areas likely to be affected, banks that are at risk of giving way, as well as elevated areas and low areas, where flooding could or could not affect certain parts of the country."

Humanitarian challenges grow

Better preparation and better data are the good news compared to 2023. The bad news is that funding and overall humanitarian capacities have seriously decreased due to the drastic reduction in funds allocated to humanitarian aid since 2025. We therefore have less money, fewer means, and fewer capacities to prepare for such massive and devastating floods and to deal with them.

El Niño reaches record strength

This year's cycle has been called a "super El Niño," but the term used by many scientists is "very strong." The WMO stated last month that it expected this cycle to meet this definition before reaching its peak in December. The reference criterion for this definition is the temperature anomaly of the ocean's surface in part of the Pacific Ocean, which currently reaches record levels.

Climate change complicates El Niño effects

Climate change complicates the picture, as the oceans are now warmer, but scientists can eliminate this background effect to determine the absolute increase.