El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is likely to influence Australian food prices. This year, Australia is experiencing a strong El Niño event, which the Bureau of Meteorology says may be the strongest on record since reliable data began in 1950. Alongside this weather pattern, rising inflation and other economic factors are adding pressure on the country’s agricultural sector. The effects of El Niño on rainfall and temperature could lead to both challenges and opportunities for farmers, with some crops expected to thrive while others may suffer. The agricultural impact of El Niño is expected to be mixed. In certain parts of Australia, lower spring rainfall could reduce the availability of vegetables like leafy greens, peas, broccoli, and cauliflower, potentially leading to higher prices for these items later in the year. However, drier conditions may benefit fruit production, with an increase in citrus, apples, and stone fruits like peaches, nectarines, and plums expected. While extreme heat and sun exposure might affect the appearance of produce, the quality of these fruits and vegetables remains unaffected. Industry groups are promoting the sale of "imperfect" produce to help reduce waste and provide more affordable options to consumers. In eastern and southern regions of Australia, reduced winter and spring rainfall could lead to lower pasture production, which affects cattle and sheep farming. With less natural grazing available, farmers may need to use more feed supplements or reduce their livestock numbers. If many producers try to sell animals at the same time, livestock prices could fall. Meanwhile, forecasts for winter crops like wheat, barley, and canola in 2026–27 show a mixed outlook. While production is expected to drop significantly in Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia due to below-average rainfall, conditions in Victoria and South Australia are likely to support higher crop yields. Consumers are likely to see rising food prices in the coming months, though the exact increases are difficult to predict. Factors such as higher costs for fertilizers and diesel, which have risen significantly, are increasing farm input expenses. These costs are expected to be passed on to consumers, leading to higher prices for goods like wheat, sugar, and beef. The impact of rising fuel prices extends beyond the farm, increasing the cost of transporting and distributing food. Overall, these pressures are expected to contribute to continued inflation, which the Reserve Bank of Australia is closely monitoring. Food and nonalcoholic beverage prices have already been a major driver of inflation, and further increases could delay efforts to bring inflation back to the bank’s target range of 2–3%.