Hungary's paprika cultivation has drastically declined, with areas used for growing the spice shrinking by nearly 90% since 1979. In 1979, the country cultivated paprika on 13,029 hectares, but by 2024, that number had fallen to just 1,410 hectares. The situation has worsened in recent years, with the 2026 summer being the driest since 1901 and the second hottest on record, according to the HungaroMet meteorological service. Factors contributing to the decline include droughts, heatwaves, new pests, and the influx of inexpensive paprika powders from China. While several studies have identified these threats, they have not yet quantified how much each factor has contributed to the decline. The pepper Capsicum annuum, from which paprika is derived, is sensitive to high temperatures, especially during the flowering stage. Researchers from the Punjab Agricultural University in India studied this in 2011, testing eleven varieties of hot peppers. They found that when temperatures reached 40 °C during the day, only 18.2% of flowers produced fruit, compared to 65% at 34 °C. High temperatures also reduced pollen viability and fruit size. These findings, published in the International Journal of Bio-resource and Stress Management, focused on Indian pepper varieties and may not apply directly to Hungarian cultivars. Another challenge comes from the tomato moth, Helicoverpa armigera, a Mediterranean species that has been attacking Hungarian paprika since 1993. This pest thrives in hot, dry summers, and its outbreaks have increased in frequency. Researchers from the Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences in Kaposvár and Sapientia University of Transylvania studied the moth, noting that it can produce two to three generations per year in Hungary. The larvae feed on pepper fruits, creating wounds that allow pathogens to enter. By photographing caterpillars in 2022 and 2023, the researchers discovered that the insects can change color to match the plants they are feeding on, a trait that may help them spread to new agricultural areas. Europe imports about 300,000 tonnes of herbs and spices each year, mostly from East Asia, according to the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. In 2019, nearly 1,900 samples from 23 European countries were analyzed, with 17% of the products found to be suspicious of fraud. However, paprika has the lowest rate of suspected fraud at 6%, suggesting that the main pressure from imported products comes from their lower prices rather than quality issues. To protect the unique designations of Kalocsa and Szeged paprika, chemists from the University of Murcia in Spain used near-infrared spectroscopy to analyze 115 samples. Their method, published in Food Control, can distinguish between protected designations and detect harmful dyes like Sudan and Congo red at very low concentrations. While these studies do not provide immediate solutions, they highlight potential strategies such as developing heat-tolerant pepper varieties, monitoring pests more closely, and improving controls to verify the origin of paprika powders. However, other challenges remain, such as the shortage of seasonal workers for manual harvesting. The Hungarian Ministry of Agriculture has expressed a desire to support producers but has not yet announced specific measures. Beyond the economic implications, the decline of paprika cultivation also threatens a cultural heritage. Paprika, introduced to Europe from the Americas in the 16th century, became a national symbol in the 19th century, according to ethnographer Imre Romsics. Preserving it means maintaining a unique sector and a centuries-old tradition in Europe.