Macron highlights nuclear deterrence

President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the importance of nuclear deterrence in French defense strategy during an event held in front of the submarine Le Téméraire. The event took place at a submarine dry dock basin, with the platform appearing nearly crushed by the size of the basin.

Event staging raises questions

The staging of the event was described as controlled, raising questions about whether Macron's speech on Long Island marks France's entry into what some analysts call the third nuclear age. This term refers to a new phase in the use and perception of nuclear weapons on the global stage.

Nuclear ages defined

The concept of nuclear ages is used to divide the history of nuclear deterrence into distinct periods. The first age began with the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, marking the sudden introduction of nuclear weapons to the global stage.

First nuclear age characteristics

This period was characterized by a rivalry between the East and West, constrained by the presence of nuclear weapons, and ended with the collapse of the Soviet bloc and the disappearance of the USSR. It established the foundation for modern nuclear strategy and international relations.

Second nuclear age transition

The second nuclear age is often seen as a transitional period, with some scholars referring to it as an "interregnum between the cyclical pushes of rivalry between great powers" or a "zone between two wars." During this time, several treaties aimed at limiting arsenals and prohibiting nuclear tests were signed.

Proliferation during the second age

There was a "triple horizontal proliferation" with India, Pakistan, and North Korea acquiring nuclear capabilities. This period also saw a shift in the balance of power and the emergence of new nuclear-armed states outside the traditional nuclear powers.

Maintaining deterrence for smaller arsenals

For states with smaller arsenals, such as the United Kingdom and France, the issue of maintaining effective nuclear deterrence remains a concern. General Poirier stated that "effective deterrence strategy finds its reason for existence only in the uncertainties of the future of the political-strategic universe."

Third nuclear age marked by new focus

The transition to the third nuclear age is marked by the increasing centrality of nuclear weapons in the affirmation of powers, as noted in the Strategic National Review of 2025. In France, the concept of the third nuclear age was formulated by Christian Malis in 2014.

Scenarios and evolving threats

He proposed four scenarios for the period 2030-2040 and later refined his arguments to include the Ukrainian crisis, nuclear blackmail, and the resurgence of tactical nuclear weapons. These scenarios reflect evolving threats and strategic considerations in the nuclear domain.

Analysts describe third age

Admiral Pierre Vandier described the third nuclear age as the "continuation or resumption of the diffusion of the nuclear fact," while Thomas Gomart called for a renewal of French strategic thinking, noting that the concept of French nuclear deterrence could lead to analytical errors.

Re-emergence of great power confrontation

Emmanuelle Maitre described the third nuclear age as a return of confrontation between great powers, accompanied by a re-investment in strategic capabilities and the emergence of new missile and anti-missile technologies. Louis Gautier characterized the third nuclear age as a combination of a frenzied arms race, strategic competition between blocs of powers, and a relaxation of the prudence disciplines previously internalized by nuclear states.

Analyzing the third age

The shift to the third nuclear age is analyzed in three dimensions: the hardening of nuclear postures, the development of new capabilities, and the operational level, including displays of force and the use of dual-capacity systems. However, the dates used to define these ages are arbitrary and may not include all nuclear-armed states, especially those with different dynamics.

Divergent views on nuclear ages

Some scholars, like Colin S. Gray, have suggested varying dates for the first nuclear age, ranging from 1945-1989 to 1947-1991. François Géré notes that the erosion of the deterrence concept between the two Great Powers began as early as 1986.

France's delayed response

France's perception and response to these changes may have occurred with a five-year delay compared to other countries. President Mitterrand acknowledged the lack of an enemy despite the presence of nuclear weapons in 1991, and President Chirac announced the end of certain nuclear components in 1996.