Pre-election polls increase in 2027

Thirty pre-election polls have already been published for the presidential election of April-May 2027, with their frequency expected to rise in the coming months. This increase has sparked renewed debate about the reliability of these tools and their influence on democratic processes.

History of political polling

Polls were first used in the United States in the 1920s for marketing studies, later applied to politics. In the 1936 election, George Gallup and others accurately predicted Roosevelt’s re-election using representative sampling, while the Literary Digest’s flawed large-scale survey wrongly predicted Roosevelt’s defeat. This event helped establish the credibility of opinion polls in political contexts.

Polls in France

In France, the first polling institute, the French Institute of Public Opinion (Ifop), was founded in 1938 by sociologist Jean Stoetzel. Polls gained legitimacy in 1965 when they correctly predicted General de Gaulle’s runoff victory. The number of polls has grown significantly over time, reaching 560 in 2017 and 30 already in 2027.

Debates on polls’ validity

Sociologist Pierre Bourdieu argued in Public opinion does not exist (1973 and 1980) that polls create the very opinion they claim to measure. He also claimed they "atomize" public opinion by questioning individuals outside their social context and underestimate the influence of activist groups.

Polls and voter behavior

Polls can influence how people vote, especially by encouraging strategic voting—choosing candidates with a better chance of winning instead of one’s preferred candidate. The way questions are phrased can introduce bias, but people with strong political views are less likely to be affected by non-neutral questions. However, isolating the effects of polls on voting behavior is difficult due to the many other factors at play during an election.

French regulations on polls

In France, rules have been put in place to reduce the impact of polls on elections. Since 2002, the publication of electoral polls is banned after the official end of the campaign. A commission oversees poll production and ensures transparency in methods, addressing concerns about the legitimacy of second-round predictions.

Limitations of electoral polls

Electoral polls are not forecasts but snapshots of public opinion at a given time. The balance of power can shift during a campaign, making accuracy hard to guarantee. The best measure of a poll’s accuracy is the last one published two or three days before the election. Second-round polls are generally more accurate as they can be adjusted based on first-round results.

Inaccuracy in past elections

In some elections, polls have been considered inaccurate. In 1995, Jacques Chirac was predicted to win but came second, while Lionel Jospin, predicted to finish second, won. In 2002, polls failed to predict the elimination of Lionel Jospin and the selection of Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Social issue polls

Polls on social issues provide insights into public opinion on various topics, but their exact correspondence with reality cannot be confirmed. Unlike electoral polls, which are validated by election results, these polls offer a snapshot of public sentiment that cannot be verified. They require careful analysis to be useful for democratic debate.