An 'exceptional intensity' El Niño could make 2026 the hottest year ever, warns the Copernicus Observatory, as global temperatures near critical thresholds.
El Niño reaching record levels
An "exceptional intensity" El Niño event could make 2026 the hottest year ever recorded, according to the European Copernicus Observatory. In September, the meteorological phenomenon caused warming in parts of the Pacific to unprecedented levels, with the temperature of the entire oceans—excluding polar regions—reaching 21.05°C, the highest level ever recorded for that month.Understanding El Niño
El Niño is a natural climate variation that warms surface temperatures in the center and east of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The current episode, declared in June, could become the most intense ever recorded, amplifying the effects of human-induced climate change. The heat at the surface of the sea in the "Niño 3.4 region," a reference area in the Pacific, reached an absolute record of 29.70°C in September.El Niño intensity compared to past events
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) announced that El Niño had intensified, with sea temperatures 4.0°C above normal in the reference area of the Pacific, surpassing the previous record set in December 1997. However, "we cannot yet confirm that the current El Niño episode is the strongest ever recorded," Copernicus tempered for AFP.Global temperature projections
El Niño can usually lead to an increase in global temperatures in the year following its peak intensity, expected in December according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). However, Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus service, said that the average global surface temperature could reach an unprecedented level as early as 2026. "If we follow the pattern observed in the past, we could experience a record year 2026, followed by a record year 2027," he said to AFP.Recent temperature records
According to Copernicus, last month was the second hottest September ever recorded, registering 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels, before the widespread use of fossil fuels permanently warmed the climate. It is the second consecutive month that temperatures have exceeded the 1.5°C warming threshold compared to this period, a limit that marks the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement.Impact of climate goals
Ten years ago, this agreement aimed to limit warming well below 2°C and continue efforts to keep it at 1.5°C. However, this threshold has not officially been exceeded, as it is understood on average over many years. However, its crossing is now considered inevitable by most scientists and the UN, which urge to limit its magnitude and duration.El Niño's effect on 2024
The last El Niño episode contributed to making 2024 the hottest year ever recorded so far, after a series of months where temperatures exceeded 1.5°C, noted Carlo Buontempo. "Exceeding the long-term limit set by the Paris Agreement is just a matter of time" but "the magnitude of this exceedance, and its duration, still depend on us," he noted.Drought conditions in Europe
Drought has also continued in parts of Europe, after a very dry summer, and these conditions have intensified or expanded over the Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, the western part of the Balkans, and Greece, noted Copernicus. As a result, "exceptionally low river flows have persisted over a large part of Europe in September." A situation that has made navigation almost impossible on certain parts of the Rhine in Germany.
