Russia is holding its first parliamentary elections since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine over four years ago, at a time when President Vladimir Putin faces declining public approval, significant military losses, and limited territorial progress in the ongoing war. The country’s electoral system is highly controlled, and Putin’s ruling party, United Russia, is expected to maintain its dominance in the State Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, which has 450 members. United Russia currently holds 310 seats and needs at least 300 to keep its supermajority. According to state pollster VTsIOM, United Russia has 37 per cent support, while the closest opposition party, the Communist Party, has 11.6 per cent. The elections will take place between 18 and 20 September. Other opposition parties include the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democrat Party and the anti-war Yabloko Party, which was banned from the party-list ballot by the Supreme Court. Putin has recently shown signs of acknowledging the challenges Russia faces, admitting that Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure have had a greater impact than anticipated. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian forces have achieved near-zero net gains against Russian forces since March 2026, and the Kremlin is reportedly attempting to use "cognitive warfare" — psychological tactics aimed at influencing perceptions — to pressure the United States into convincing Ukraine to cede territory that Russia has not been able to capture on the battlefield. Public support for Putin has been declining, with his approval rating dropping by 12.2 percentage points between late December and late April, reaching 65.6 per cent, according to state polling data. The Kremlin has taken a more conciliatory stance recently, expressing interest in Donald Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, following months of stalled negotiations and tensions with Iran. Analyst John Lough, from the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, suggests that Putin believes he is still winning, even if progress is slow, because he is not only fighting Ukraine but also a significant portion of NATO. He argues that stopping the war now would be seen as weakness and could provoke backlash from the 10-15 per cent of the Russian population that strongly supports the conflict. Some in this group might resort to violence if they feel betrayed, while the broader population remains silent due to fear of repression. A third of Russians have benefited from the war through increased defense spending, but an anti-war sentiment exists, albeit unorganized and suppressed. According to UK defense official Air Chief Marshall Sir Richard Knighton, nearly 500,000 Russians have been killed in the war, with a total of 1.5 million casualties. The slow progress on the battlefield could lead to further military mobilization after the elections, but public support for compulsory conscription has fallen from 24 per cent in early 2023 to 11 per cent in 2026, according to the Kyiv-based Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia (IKAR). The Russian military continues to suffer around 30,000 casualties per month, and while it can recruit the same number, this is not enough to replace soldiers who have served for over a year. This has increased pressure for further mobilization, but the Kremlin is hesitant due to public concern. Reports suggest that men of conscription age are leaving the country in anticipation of another draft. The Kremlin may attempt to boost troop numbers by encouraging students to sign military contracts, as it needs better-educated personnel to operate advanced technology like drones, rather than just infantry. Lough notes that Russia is becoming more willing to take risks, including the possibility of accidental escalation into NATO territory. This was seen in an attack on a train that narrowly missed a group of foreign dignitaries, including former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, on Sunday. The incident highlights growing concerns about the potential for unintended consequences as the war continues to take its toll on both sides.