Political structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina is divided into two main entities: a Serb one and a Croat-Bosnian one. It has a three-member presidency, with one seat each for Bosnian, Croat, and Serb representatives. This arrangement was created to ensure no single ethnic group holds too much power.

Elections reflect ethnic divisions

In the October 4 general elections, nationalist parties from each ethnic group gained power, showing that ethnic divisions remain strong. The election results reinforced the existing political structure, with each group maintaining control over its respective entity.

Serb political dynamics

Milorad Dodik, a prominent Serb nationalist and ally of Russia, was prevented from running for office by the Bosnian judiciary. Despite this, his party, the SNSD, continues to hold power in the Republika Srpska and maintains the Serb seat in the presidency.

Croat and Bosnian political outcomes

On the Croat side, Darijana Filipovic of the HDZ-BiH was elected to the presidency and supports the creation of a third entity, which would deepen ethnic divisions. On the Bosnian side, the SDA returned as the leading party but did not reclaim the presidency from social democrat Denis Becirovic. The liberal party Nasa stranka suffered a significant loss in Sarajevo.

Russian influence in Bosnia

Florent Marciacq, a political science expert on the Balkans, says the current instability in Bosnia benefits Russia. The country's division prevents it from joining the European Union or NATO, and Russia gains influence without needing to act directly. Local leaders seek Russian support to rally their populations against Western powers.

U.S. involvement in energy projects

The United States has supported a pipeline project connecting Bosnia to Croatia’s LNG terminal in Krk, managed by American company AAFS. This project was initially opposed by Dodik, who had a veto. Washington lifted sanctions on Dodik in October 2025, prompting him to withdraw his veto. Marciacq calls this move clientelism, a tactic seen in other countries like Albania.

EU pressure and international tensions

The European Union, Bosnia’s main economic partner, warned that the gas agreement could cost nearly 1 billion euros in aid. Despite the warning, the deal was signed in April 2025. International high representative Christian Schmidt resigned in May 2025, criticizing pressure from the U.S. Disputes continue over his replacement, as Brussels offers infrastructure investments but fails to resolve deep divisions in the country.

Legal and demographic challenges

In 2009, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that a constitution barring Jews or Roma from running for president was discriminatory. However, the ethnic distribution of political positions remains unchanged. Young people are leaving the country, while nationalist elites benefit from the current system, which allows them to hold power and wealth without accountability.