Insee, France’s national statistics institute, released its provisional estimate of the consumer price index (CPI) on September 30, showing an annual increase of 3.0% in September, up from 2.4% in August. The rise was largely driven by energy prices, which climbed by 21.2% year-on-year, compared to 16.7% in August. Fresh products also saw a significant jump, rising by 9.9% over the year, compared to 5.9% in August. This category holds considerable weight in the index, contributing to a 1.5% annual increase in the food category. However, excluding fresh products, other food items saw only a 0.4% rise. Over the month, consumer prices would decrease by 0.3%, mainly due to seasonal declines in transport and accommodation services after the summer, while food prices continued to rise for the third consecutive month, again driven by fresh products. Services, meanwhile, increased by 2.2% over a year, following 1.9% in August. Insee linked the sharp rise in fresh produce prices to the summer heatwaves, which lasted 53 days between mid-June and the end of August—surpassing the previous record of 31 days in 2022. Vegetables were particularly affected, with fresh vegetables excluding potatoes experiencing an annual price increase of 13.8% in August, the highest since early 2024. Heavy rains in February disrupted planting, and the heat affected autumn and winter plantings, possibly reducing harvest volumes by about 20%. Lettuce, leeks, cucumbers, and tomatoes were among the most impacted. The index of agricultural product prices at production (Ippap), published in late August, showed a 10.8% increase in fresh vegetables over the year in July, with salads rising by 24.2% and carrots by 17.5%. Drought conditions further reduced harvests in some areas. Not all agricultural products saw rising prices. Milk at production decreased by 9.1% over the year, with cow's milk down by 9.7%. Egg prices fell by 6.4%, and pig prices dropped by 17.7%. Overall, animal product prices declined by 5.2% annually. Potatoes also saw a 4.3% decrease in price, and the increase in large cattle prices slowed to 1.0%. Insee attributed this slowdown to reduced exports and consumption during heatwave periods. Meanwhile, the index of agricultural production input prices (Ipampa) rose by 6.2% over the year in July, mainly due to higher energy costs, up 36.2%, and fertilizers, up 14.4%. For dairy producers, this means the cost of production is rising while the selling price is falling. The impact of rising cereal prices on consumer prices is expected to be gradual, with about 50% of the increase reflected in consumer prices after three quarters and approaching 80% by the end of the following year. By late 2026, the rise in cereal prices would be slightly passed on to agro-food products. For vegetables, the effect appears faster, with Insee’s econometric models confirming that heatwaves have had a significant long-term impact on their prices. However, these models show no effect on fruit or potato prices. Insee also cited research by Maximilian Kotz and others from the European Central Bank (ECB), estimating that the 2022 heatwave contributed about 0.7 percentage points to European food inflation. Final results, due on October 15, will clarify whether the current market pressures are sustained.