Environmental activists in Brazil are growing increasingly concerned as the country approaches its presidential and legislative elections on October 4 and 25. On September 20, a climate march took place at Leme Beach in Rio de Janeiro, drawing participants from various political parties and environmental groups. The event underscored the unity among different environmental collectives, all of whom are worried about the upcoming elections and the direction of environmental policy. Current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the center-left Parti des Travailleurs is viewed as the strongest advocate for environmental protection. His main rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, faces legal troubles, having been sentenced to 27 years in prison in September 2025 for attempting a coup. Recent polls indicate that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are evenly matched, with Lula holding a slight edge. Lula has achieved notable success in reducing deforestation, a pressing issue for Brazil, which is home to more than 65% of the Amazon rainforest, the world's largest tropical rainforest. According to data from the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), the Amazon lost 1,295 square kilometers of native vegetation in the first half of 2025, the lowest level in a decade. Additionally, 12.7 million hectares of Brazilian forests burned in 2025, a 31% drop from the historical average established in 1985, as reported by the environmental organization Mapbiomas. This decline is attributed to the implementation of a national policy for integrated fire management (PMIF), which includes stricter regulations for rural landowners. Lula's government has prioritized restoring environmental control mechanisms, which have led to reduced deforestation in the Amazon, a trend that has extended to other biomes since 2025. If re-elected, Lula aims to achieve zero deforestation by 2030. However, environmentalists have criticized Lula for his development-focused plans, such as tapping oil reserves at the mouth of the Amazon River to fund the ecological transition. Lula also supports infrastructure projects like the BR-319 road, which would connect the Amazonian cities of Porto Velho and Manaus, and the Ferrogrão railway, which would span the Amazon from north to south to transport soybeans. Environmentalists are particularly worried about the return of policies similar to those of Jair Bolsonaro, who led Brazil from 2019 to 2022. These policies included opposition to new territorial demarcations for indigenous peoples and the relaxation of environmental regulations. Flávio Bolsonaro has also expressed opposition to new indigenous land demarcations, echoing his father’s stance. Environmentalists fear that Flávio Bolsonaro’s policies could lead to "large-scale catastrophes," especially with the potential for severe droughts and food security risks due to the El Niño phenomenon. There are also concerns that Flávio Bolsonaro’s administration could lead to increased violence against environmentalists. Neusa Guarani, an indigenous candidate for the Workers' Party in the state assembly of Rio de Janeiro, stated she could "simply risk death" if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the election. She mentioned that her brother was assassinated in 2018 while defending his territory. She attributes the violence to the influence of militias, paramilitary groups often formed by former police, military, firefighters, or public officials, which control and extort parts of Rio and its surrounding areas. According to the magazine Piauí, Flávio Bolsonaro may have sent 200,000 reais (33,880 euros) in parliamentary funds to a miliciano convicted of the assassination of the black activist Marielle Franco, who was also killed in 2018 while protecting a natural area from real estate speculation. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the election, organized crime could come to power.