UNEP report highlights widening emissions gap

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released an annual report on October 21, 2026, detailing the growing gap between current emissions levels and the goals set by the Paris Agreement. The report shows that even if all nations meet their climate commitments, global temperatures could rise by 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. If current policies remain unchanged, the increase could reach 2.8°C.

Worsening projections and key factors

The report indicates that the projected temperature rise has worsened compared to the previous year, when the expected increase was between 2.3°C and 2.5°C. This deterioration is attributed to two main factors: the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration and the upward revision of historical emissions estimates.

Disappearing chance to stay below 1.5°C

The UNEP report explicitly states that the possibility of keeping global warming below 1.5°C has disappeared. This conclusion follows decades of insufficient climate action, particularly from G20 countries, which are responsible for 75% of global emissions. Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, calls this a "historic failure of political leadership."

Risks of exceeding the 1.5°C limit

Scientists emphasize that every additional fraction of a degree beyond 1.5°C increases the frequency of extreme weather events. The year 2026 has already seen deadly floods, heatwaves, and uncontrolled fires in many regions, including Europe during the summer. Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, notes that each degree of warming increases climate impacts and risks.

Path to minimal exceedance of 1.5°C

Despite the grim outlook, UNEP presents a scenario where the 1.5°C threshold is only slightly exceeded. In this case, global warming would peak at 1.7°C to 1.8°C by mid-century before falling below 1.5°C by 2100, with a 50% chance of success. This requires immediate and massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, including an 18% decrease by 2030 and 45% by 2035.

Impact of U.S. withdrawal from Paris Agreement

The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration has had a measurable impact on global warming projections. Scientists estimate that the policies of that administration alone will add approximately 0.1°C to global warming by 2100. TBS News reports that 70% of the 189 million additional tons of CO2 emissions recorded in 2025 came from the United States.

Criticism of U.S. climate policies

Bill Hare, director of Climate Analytics, criticizes the U.S. for blocking renewable energy and promoting fossil fuels. He compares the situation to someone denying a fire while pouring gasoline on it. Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, fears that the U.S. withdrawal may encourage other nations to reduce their climate efforts.

Hope in renewable energy growth

Despite the bleak outlook, the report highlights progress in renewable energy. Global renewable energy capacity has grown three times faster than expected, and solar energy deployment has increased sevenfold. The growth of coal and oil energy has slowed, and climate policies have reduced emissions in many areas.

Effective climate policies identified

More than 220 climate policy assessments show that certain measures can significantly reduce emissions. Policies in the electricity sector have reduced emissions by an average of 9%, while economic tools like carbon taxes have achieved reductions of 5 to 13% in various sectors. However, these successes are unevenly distributed.

Global commitments and future targets

At the first global stocktake, nations pledged to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030. They also committed to reducing fossil fuel use and deforestation. However, current emission trends are moving in the wrong direction, and the necessary reductions are not happening fast enough.

Challenges and the need for urgent action

According to Nature, global greenhouse gas emissions remained largely stable between 2024 and 2025, mainly due to a decrease in land use emissions. If this trend continues, it could mark the first decline since the pandemic. However, even this may not be enough to prevent significant warming.

Call to action before COP31

With only three weeks until COP31, the UNEP report serves as an urgent call to action. Adelle Thomas, vice-president of an UN scientific assessment on climate impacts, emphasizes that the tools to address climate change exist, but delays only make the challenge more dangerous and costly.