Iran exports petroleum despite U.S. blockade

Iran has reportedly exported millions of barrels of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene since July, according to maritime tracking data and security experts. These exports have been hidden among growing ship-to-ship transfers by other Gulf producers off the coast of Oman, as reported by Reuters.

Tankers bypassing U.S. sanctions

At least eight Iranian LPG tankers have left the Gulf of Oman since mid-July, with six of these tankers and one carrying kerosene subject to U.S. sanctions for transporting Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products. Satellite images analyzed by the maritime intelligence group SynMax show that a tanker carrying Iranian kerosene reached Myanmar in September.

Shipment routes and destinations

Jemima Shelley, a principal analyst at UANI, noted that some of the Iranian LPG tankers have offloaded their cargo off the coastal cities of Shinas and Sohar in Oman, while others have waited in the Gulf of Oman before circumventing the U.S. blockade. The total volume of these LPG shipments has been estimated at 4.1 million barrels.

U.S. blockade timeline and enforcement

The U.S. Central Command stated that its naval blockade, imposed on April 13 on oil exports linked to Iran, was suspended in June after a proposed agreement with Iran but was reinstated on July 14 after the negotiations failed. A U.S. military official told Reuters that the passage of a ship did not necessarily mean it had circumvented the blockade, as each ship was evaluated individually based on its documents, and some ships could be allowed to pass for humanitarian reasons.

New sanctions and skepticism of data

Last week, Washington imposed new sanctions on 17 ships involved in the transport of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products. A spokesperson for the U.S. Treasury cast doubt on maritime data suggesting that ships had circumvented the blockade, stating that these ships could falsify their positions or use false identities during loading.

Kerosene as a strategic export

Torbjorn Soltvedt, a principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, noted that if Iran manages to get tankers through, even in small numbers, kerosene could be a good option, as the Iranian aviation industry is under increasing pressure from U.S. sanctions, with an increasing number of planes grounded and a potential surplus of kerosene in Iranian refineries. Iranian crude oil exports fell to zero in September, according to Kpler, for the first time since the company began tracking exports in 2013.