Past emissions from the world’s largest polluters will continue to influence global temperatures for decades, according to a new study from the University of Washington. Scientists have made progress in linking extreme weather events—often referred to as climate disasters—to climate change. These advancements, known as attribution science, help clarify how human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, have increased the likelihood of severe weather. This research has become central to a rising number of legal cases that seek to hold major emitters accountable for the damage and loss of life caused by climate-related disasters. The study highlights that even if greenhouse gas emissions were to drop dramatically today, the planet would not return to its previous state. The top 178 oil, gas, coal, and cement producers have released more than a trillion tons of carbon dioxide, much of which will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years, trapping heat and contributing to global warming. According to Dargan Frierson, an associate professor of atmospheric and climate science at the University of Washington, even if emissions ceased immediately, Earth would likely remain about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than preindustrial levels. “The only stable future is one with no fossil fuels burned at all,” he said. To reach these conclusions, researchers used the Finite Amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model to simulate global climate conditions through the year 2500. They considered both low- and high-emissions scenarios, including the impact of emissions from carbon majors through 2024. In a future where emissions are limited, the contribution of these major polluters to global warming is more significant. In high-emissions scenarios, where fossil fuel use continues, the planet warms more. However, the total warming caused by these companies remains relatively consistent regardless of future emissions. “The amount of warming is calculable and relatively independent of future emissions,” Frierson explained. This research adds new weight to ongoing legal efforts to hold fossil fuel companies responsible for climate-related harm. Scientists have long known that greenhouse gases contribute to global warming, but the new study shows that emissions from the past can increase the chances of future climate disasters through long-term warming. Frierson emphasized the importance of these findings for current and future decisions about fossil fuel use. “Future fossil fuel production will worsen climate disasters for many decades to come, so new legal battles about who is accountable should be expected for many years,” he said. The study, titled “Centuries of global heating from Carbon Majors,” was published in the journal PLOS Climate.