France's presidential election sees high voter abstention, with debates over its impact on democracy and political participation.
Polling stations close in France
The first polling stations in Metropolitan France have closed, with preliminary results of the first round of the presidential election expected within half an hour. These results will be officially announced at 8 p.m. local time. Abstention rates spark debate
Television studios are analyzing the rate of voter abstention, or the percentage of registered voters who did not cast a ballot. With over 50 million registered voters, some analysts suggest the rate may be below 20 percent, similar to earlier decades, while others argue it could exceed 30 percent, a potential record. Historical context of abstention
Political scientists Céline Braconnier and Jean-Yves Dormagen, in their 2007 book La démocratie de l'abstention, warned about a "country in which the act of voting no longer mobilizes more than a minority of citizens." While this has not yet fully occurred, the trend of rising abstention has continued for over 20 years. Abstention trends over time
Abstention rates have varied across elections. In the 2022 presidential election, the first-round abstention rate was 26.3 percent, close to the record of 28.4 percent from 2002. In contrast, the 2024 legislative elections saw a 33 percent abstention rate, following the dissolution of the National Assembly. Underestimating non-participation
Abstention rates do not fully reflect voter disengagement, as they do not account for individuals not registered on electoral lists. Economist Youssef Souidi estimates nearly 3 million people were not registered in 2022, according to INSEE, suggesting that the official figures underestimate the true scale of non-participation. Participation and intermittent voters
Only one registered voter in six avoided all four Sundays of elections in 2022, meaning barely more than one in three voters participated in every opportunity to vote. Between these extremes are "intermittent" voters, who made up 51 percent of the electorate in 2017 and 47 percent in 2022. These voters are most common among those under 55 years old. Abstention patterns by region
Political scientist Tristan Haute notes that the same voters do not consistently abstain, and higher abstention rates amplify the influence of factors like age, occupation, and education level. Gaps between different socio-economic groups are growing. Regional differences in abstention
According to research by Youssef Souidi and Thomas Vonderscher, during the 2024 legislative elections, abstention was 46 percent in the 5 percent of polling stations with the lowest average incomes, such as in Seine-Saint-Denis and Nord-Pas-de-Calais. In contrast, abstention was only 24 percent in the wealthiest 5 percent of polling stations, concentrated in Paris and other affluent areas.
