Research from Wake Forest University suggests that efforts by police to prevent art theft could unintentionally lead to more masterpieces being stolen. The study, published in the Journal of Cultural Economics, uses game theory to model the complex interactions between museum administrators, art thieves, and law enforcement. According to the research, when governments invest in specialized police units to tackle art crimes, the public recovery rate of stolen art increases. However, the study highlights a surprising consequence: museums may cut back on their own security spending, feeling that law enforcement is now handling the threat. This reduced private security can make it easier for thieves to operate, as the increased risk of police detection may be offset by the weaker defenses. The paper also explores why some of the world’s most valuable cultural treasures—such as the two paintings stolen in the September 2026 Renoir Museum heist and the priceless French Crown Jewels taken from the Louvre in late 2025—are sometimes protected by relatively simple or flawed security systems. The study shows that the amount of money museums spend on security does not always match the value of the artwork they hold. High-profile pieces are hard to sell on the black market, and their resale value is much lower compared to their actual worth. Thieves know this, which makes them less likely to steal such items for profit. Instead, they may target these items to demand a ransom or negotiate for their return, rather than trying to sell them. The research underscores that effective art theft policies must consider the entire system, not just one part. To reduce art crime without causing unintended problems, policymakers could focus on disrupting the black market, setting minimum security standards for museums, and adjusting penalties for art thieves. The study argues that preventing art crime requires understanding how museums, thieves, and law enforcement all respond to each other’s actions. Without this comprehensive approach, well-intentioned efforts to protect art may end up making it more vulnerable.