Cacao Price Cut Sparks Concern

On September 1, the Côte d'Ivoire cacao festival in Abidjan had a subdued atmosphere, reflecting the recent drop in the guaranteed price for cacao growers. The Minister of Agriculture, Bruno Koné, announced a price of 1,200 FCFA per kilogram for the 2026-2027 campaign, a sharp decline from 2,800 FCFA a year earlier.

Producer Income Plummets

The drop in the guaranteed price has led to a significant decrease in the unit income of cacao producers, which has fallen by a factor of 2.3 in just twelve months. The government attributes this change to market volatility and the advance sales by the Cocoa and Coffee Council.

Historical Context of the Price

The government notes that the new price is the third highest in the country's history, which provides some context. However, the previous higher price had been crucial for producers to purchase necessary inputs and secure campaign credits.

Smuggling and Market Pressures

The price reduction has already prompted concerns about smuggling to neighboring countries, as the price gap widens. This situation highlights the fragility of the current market conditions and the potential for illegal trade.

Market Fluctuations and Climate Impact

The surge in cacao prices in 2024 was due to a combination of climate and health issues, including drought, swollen shoot disease, and aging orchards, which reduced supply. Prices then fell until spring 2026 before rebounding slightly due to the threat of El Niño.

Côte d'Ivoire's Global Role

Côte d'Ivoire, which supplies about 40% of the world's cacao, is facing challenges common to single-export countries. The recent price drops have exposed the vulnerability of relying heavily on one export commodity.

Value Chain Disparity

According to a FAO study, producing countries like Côte d'Ivoire capture only about 18.6% of the total value of chocolate and less than 7.5% of the profits. The majority of the value is captured by brands and distributors, leaving cacao growers at a disadvantage.

Processing Capacity and Industry Growth

Despite the price drop, the country's processing capacity has grown significantly. In 2025-2026, about 650,000 tonnes of beans were processed, nearly 30% of the harvest. Companies like Barry Callebaut are expanding their operations in Abidjan, and local processing capacity is expected to increase to 1.34 million tonnes this campaign.

Industrial Ambitions and Challenges

The National Development Plan aims for 50% local processing by 2030. However, the gap between current processing capacity and production remains significant. Additionally, the swollen shoot disease and El Niño pose threats to the supply of raw materials for the factories.

Shift from Agriculture to Commerce

The transition from raw cacao to finished chocolate requires more than just processing—it demands expertise in recipes, cold storage, and branding. This shift from agriculture to commerce is a complex challenge for Côte d'Ivoire as it seeks to build a more diversified economy.