Court of Audit warns of financial risks

The Court of Audit, in its report published on Tuesday, October 20, called for the Social Security system's finances to be placed on a "trajectory towards balance" by 2030, emphasizing that recovery is now essential. This warning came just hours before the start of the examination of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS) for 2027 by deputies.

Government aims for deficit reduction

The government has set an ambitious goal of reducing the Social Security deficit by nearly half, from 22.6 billion euros in 2026 to 12.7 billion euros in 2027. This would represent a significant step toward balancing the system, but financial officials have pointed out that the assumptions behind this target are fragile.

Uncertainties in economic forecasts

The government's plan relies on a 1% growth in 2027, a forecast deemed optimistic by the High Council of Public Finances. Other uncertainties also affect expected savings, particularly measures that still depend on negotiations between social partners, such as daily allowances during work stoppages and the regulation of health product sales.

Key measure details remain unclear

One of the main measures in the PLFSS involves under-indexing or freezing pensions for retirees earning at least 1,260 euros per month. The specifics of this policy still need to be defined by decree, which adds uncertainty to the expected savings of around 3 billion euros from this measure.

Past failures raise concerns

The risk of repeating last year's outcome is high: despite promises to restore the Social Security accounts, the deficit is expected to reach 21.8 billion euros in 2026, worse than the initial target by 2.4 billion euros. This precedent has raised concerns about the feasibility of the 2027 goals.

Call for political consensus

Bernard Lejeune, president of the sixth chamber of the Court of Audit, expressed hope that deputies could agree on a deficit of 12.7 billion euros, regardless of the choices made. While the Court sets a course, the lack of political agreement on how to sustainably reduce the deficit could once again make the return to balance an objective easier to announce than to achieve.