Ballon d’Or winners announced

The Ballon d’Or, a prestigious annual award recognizing the best male footballer, was won by Harry Kane, with Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Lionel Messi finishing in second through fifth places respectively.

Predictive betting on winners

A finance-focused account called Upside had previously predicted the final rankings, noting that the Top 5 had been heavily bet on through a predictive market platform called Polymarket, where people can place bets on future events.

Suspicious betting activity

According to reports, $264,000 was deposited into 12 accounts created in October. Seven of these accounts placed bets on no other subject, and six made large wagers just 15 minutes after being created, raising concerns about potential insider knowledge.

One bettor profited from the results

A bettor known as kraben006 first gained profits by betting on Harry Kane’s victory and then reinvested all earnings on the exact final rankings. The probability of Mbappé in second, Yamal third, Rodri fourth, and Messi fifth reached 72% several days before the ceremony, suggesting an unusual level of knowledge about the outcome.

Previous leak caused controversy

This is not the first time the Ballon d’Or has faced issues with leaks. In 2024, the early revelation that Rodri had won over Vinícius Jr led to a diplomatic dispute and Real Madrid’s decision to boycott the event.

Ballon d’Or organizers respond

The organizers of the Ballon d’Or stated they had improved security measures, ensuring that the winner is only informed at the last moment to prevent leaks. However, recent events have raised serious doubts about the security of the voting process.

Editor acknowledges risks

Vincent Garcia, editor-in-chief of France Football, acknowledged the risk of leaks when interviewed by Brut, stating that once three to five people are involved, the risk of a leak is never completely eliminated.

Concerns over integrity

The recent events have highlighted how leaks can lead to significant financial gains, casting doubt on the integrity of the Ballon d’Or selection process and prompting calls for greater transparency and security.