France’s energy surplus attracts data centers

France generates more electricity than it uses, with a significant portion coming from low-carbon sources. This surplus has drawn interest from data center operators, who are planning large-scale projects, with RTE, the country’s transmission network manager, tracking about 80 projects by 2026.

Data center demand grows rapidly

By May 2026, RTE had allocated nearly 18 gigawatts of capacity for these projects, with most aiming for between 100 and 200 megawatts—enough to power a city the size of Le Mans. A dozen of these projects exceed 400 megawatts in size, highlighting the scale of the expansion.

Concentration of projects in key regions

Most of the reserved capacity is concentrated in Île-de-France, which accounts for about 7 gigawatts, and Hauts-de-France, which holds nearly 6 gigawatts. To support this growth, France has introduced an accelerated connection process for five major data center sites.

Study questions the surplus narrative

A study by Montel, an energy market specialist, challenges the idea of France having a consistent energy surplus. Researchers simulated heat waves from 2024 to 2026, adding 15 gigawatts of demand equivalent to the reserved capacity for data centers. In this scenario, France would have imported electricity for 1,338 hours, about 70 percent of the heatwave hours studied.

Energy constraints during heatwaves

During heatwaves, France faces multiple energy constraints. Higher temperatures increase air conditioning demand, wind production declines, droughts weaken hydropower, and nuclear reactors on warm rivers may reduce output or shut down. In 2026, reactors on the Garonne and Rhône rivers reduced or stopped production, while data centers require more cooling, adding to the strain.

Reservations do not equal consumption

RTE notes that many data centers connected to the grid use only about 20 percent of the power they requested in the first two to three years. Operators estimate it will take 10 to 15 years to reach 80 percent of the anticipated load. By 2035, the industry is expected to consume 23 to 28 terawatt-hours, about 4 percent of France’s total electricity demand.

Low-carbon capacity seen as sufficient

EDF, the country’s main electricity provider, argues that heat-related shutdowns only affect about 0.3 percent of its annual production. However, the focus on average annual energy use contrasts with the reality of peak demand during heatwaves, when the grid is most strained.

Peak demand challenges the energy model

While RTE plans based on annual energy use, Montel focuses on peak power needs during critical hours. The electrical network is tested not by average use, but by the accumulation of constraints on a hot July afternoon. The Court of Auditors warns that reactor shutdowns due to high temperatures could increase significantly by 2050.

Adapting to seasonal energy limits

The challenge now is not just whether France can power AI, but when and at what cost. Possible solutions include using coastal sites, relying on contractual curtailments, and shifting operations to nighttime hours. These approaches require acknowledging that even a strong energy advantage has its seasonal limits.