Venice faces rising sea levels and subsidence, with projections of submersion by 2100. Researchers outline four adaptation strategies, but emphasize global warming mitigation as the only real solution.
Venice sinking faster than before
Venice is sinking at about 1 mm per year, while sea levels are rising at 4 mm per year, a rate that has doubled since the end of the 20th century. This is due to heat accumulation, which causes ocean expansion, and melting ice from Greenland and Antarctica.City at risk of submersion
More than half of Venice is only 80 to 120 cm above sea level. By 2100, the city could be submerged, with sea levels in the lagoon expected to rise by 40 cm in a low emissions scenario or nearly 1 meter in a more pessimistic one.Multiple causes of sinking
Venice is sinking due to tectonic, geological, and human factors. Tectonic subsidence involves the Adriatic plate sinking under the Apennines, while geological subsidence comes from soil compaction. Human activities, like groundwater and methane extraction in the 1950s and 1960s, caused an additional 130 mm of sinking before being banned in 1970.Mose project under strain
The Mose project, a system of movable dikes to protect Venice from high tides, has been in use since 2020. Its activation frequency has increased dramatically, with 30 uses in 23 days between January and February 2026, compared to 27 in 2025 and 28 in 2024.Four adaptation strategies proposed
Researchers have modeled four adaptation strategies. One relies on the Mose alone, while others involve building dikes, transforming the lagoon into a lake, or relocating Venice’s population and heritage to the mainland. Each option has trade-offs between preservation and cost.No perfect solution exists
The study shows that no strategy can fully optimize all goals. Researchers stress that the only long-term solution is to stop global warming, which would slow rising sea levels and extend Venice’s survival. Every degree of warming avoided reduces future costs and risks.
