Recent intensification of Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic targets has prompted analysis of potential Russian escalation scenarios and measures to mitigate their effectiveness. In September 2026, a drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport in Germany was attributed to Russian state agencies, prompting the German government to close Russian diplomatic facilities in the country. This incident is part of a broader trend of hybrid operations—military actions that blend conventional and unconventional tactics—making it difficult to respond without crossing into full-scale war. Ukraine has launched a campaign of long-range drone and missile strikes targeting Russian oil refineries, "ghost fleet" oil tankers, arms factories, storage facilities, and logistics centers. These attacks have shifted public perception in Russia, moving the conflict from a distant military engagement to one with significant internal repercussions. In response, Moscow has retaliated with terrorist attacks against Ukrainian civilians and intensified hybrid operations against European entities supporting Ukraine. The Russian government's reluctance to consider a ceasefire or mutual moratorium on deep strikes is influenced by domestic pressures from pro-government media, military bloggers, ultra-nationalist militants, and semi-autonomous civil society. These groups demand retaliation rather than moderation, aligning with the regime's need to maintain propaganda narratives and political power. The concept of "escalation for de-escalation" is central to Russian strategic thinking, aiming to deter further Ukrainian strikes and pressure Western support. Conventional escalation has involved intensified terrorist bombing campaigns against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, libraries, warehouses, and power plants. Kyiv has experienced more frequent and sustained missile and drone attacks, partly due to a reallocation of Russian military resources. Reports indicate Russia's increased production capacity, with the potential to produce over 200 cruise and ballistic missiles per month and approximately 10,000 low-cost Dan-T cruise missiles by 2027. This could allow Russia to maintain or intensify pressure on Kyiv while continuing attacks elsewhere in Ukraine. Russia has also employed methods akin to weapons of mass destruction, including attacks on Ukrainian nuclear power plants, the Kakhovka dam, and the use of chemical toxins and depleted uranium ammunition. These actions risk significant international repercussions, including potential nuclear escalation. Discussions in Moscow suggest the possibility of nuclear weapon tests, training exercises on nuclear deployment, or even a tactical nuclear strike, though such scenarios remain highly unlikely. Lateral escalation through hybrid operations, such as cyber attacks, sabotage, GPS jamming, and disinformation campaigns, is already occurring and expected to intensify. These operations exploit ambiguity to avoid direct military escalation and complicate responses. A conventional military attack on an EU or NATO member state is considered unlikely due to potential NATO and EU responses under Article 5 and Article 42 of the Washington and Lisbon Treaties. Policy recommendations include limiting Russia's ability to manufacture low-cost missiles and drones, enhancing air defense capabilities through joint purchases and co-production, and adopting a "Leipzig Protocol" to protect logistics hubs supporting Ukraine. These measures aim to make escalation a losing proposition for Moscow and ensure that pressure on Russia results in higher costs rather than increased influence.