Graduates in fields like computer science and other areas closely tied to artificial intelligence (AI) are facing challenges in the job market, with fewer opportunities and stagnant or declining salaries. This situation has drawn comparisons to the effects seen during the Great Recession, a period of economic downturn in 2007–2009. Many of these graduates are now working in lower-paying sectors such as food service and retail, as specialized roles in their fields have become scarce. A study by economists at the U.S. Census Bureau found that fields most affected by AI include computer science, mathematics, statistics, networking, certain engineering disciplines, and even journalism.
The study looked at how graduates from these fields have fared since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, which sparked a surge in generative AI technology. The findings show a "clear deterioration" in career prospects for the top tenth of specializations most exposed to AI. The chance of finding a job for these graduates has dropped by 5%, and their earnings over a full quarter have fallen by 13%. This decline in income is similar to what was seen during periods of strong economic recession.
In the sectors most affected by AI, hiring of young workers aged 22 to 24 has dropped sharply, while hiring in less affected sectors has remained stable. Employment of young workers in the top fifth of AI-exposed sectors has decreased by 12% over ten quarters following ChatGPT’s launch. Lee Tucker, one of the study’s co-authors, noted that the decline in hiring is the main cause of this unemployment, not the loss of existing jobs.
Graduates are also seeing lower incomes because they are taking on "less well-paid" jobs to support themselves. About half of the income loss is due to lower wages in the sectors where they were hired, while the other half comes from moving to entirely different, lower-wage sectors like food service and retail. Enrollment in computer science programs has also dropped, with undergraduate enrollments falling by 8.4% in spring 2026 compared to the previous year. This follows a 3.6% decline the previous autumn, as reported by Goldman Sachs, which noted a more than 10% drop in computer science and programming enrollments during the 2025–2026 academic year.
A survey by Gallup and the Lumina Foundation found that 42% of undergraduate students had reconsidered their field of study due to AI. However, the market shifted quickly after ChatGPT’s release, and enrollment data shows that students only began to significantly leave computer science programs three years later. In the second quarter of 2026, 42% of young graduates were underemployed, and the unemployment rate for this group was 5.6%, higher than the national average. An analysis by the Strada Institute and the Burning Glass Institute revealed that 52% of graduates held jobs that did not require a degree within a year of graduation, and 45% remained in such positions ten years later.
The main conclusion of the Census Bureau study is that AI is transforming the labor market, with a significant impact on young people who studied for jobs now affected by AI, such as software development and writing. However, researchers caution against making long-term predictions based on short-term trends. They note that many of today’s jobs did not exist just a few decades ago, and it remains difficult to foresee the types of jobs or skills that will be needed in the future.
Impact of AI on Computer Science Graduates' Employment and Earnings
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