First Russian diesel delivery to U.S. since 2022

A Russian tanker carrying diesel left a Russian port on October 22, heading to the United States. This marks the first such delivery since the Biden administration imposed a ban on Russian oil and petroleum products in March 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The delivery was announced by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, following an agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 9.

Kremlin and Russian officials differ on export capacity

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on October 11 that Russia could sell diesel on the global market without difficulty due to high demand. However, Novak was more cautious, stating that Russia would meet American needs "within the limits of its capabilities." The first delivery is likely limited, with Novak referring to a 40,000-ton vessel, while Trump had announced an "immediate" delivery of more than 300,000 tons, followed by an additional 500,000 tons in November.

Lack of final contract and industry challenges

The low volumes can also be explained by the absence of a final signed contract between Washington and Moscow, with Novak indicating that the signing was still "in the final phase." However, they also reflect the degraded state of the Russian oil industry, with repeated repairs required by Ukrainian drone strikes heavily weighing on the operations of Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, and increasing costs.

Supply chain issues and infrastructure damage

Russian or Chinese substitutes for parts damaged by drone strikes take months to arrive and are not always compatible with existing installations. The need for new parts continues to increase as Ukrainian strikes intensify and the range of drones extends, from about 650 kilometers in 2022 to 2,500 kilometers this summer. At least 114 strikes against Russian refineries have occurred since January, more than double the number recorded at the same time last year.

Declining oil production and infrastructure strain

The difficulties faced by the Russian oil sector affect the country's current production, which is expected to fall this year to its lowest level since 2009, dropping from 511 million tons of oil produced in 2025 to 494 million. The risk for Moscow is also that the amounts committed to repairing existing infrastructure limit the resources devoted to the development of new fields.

Aging infrastructure and delayed projects

Most of the large Russian oil fields have been in operation since the Soviet era, and their production is declining, making the development of new reserves increasingly necessary. However, initiatives such as the Vostok Oil megaproject, developed by Rosneft in the Russian Arctic for nearly 50 billion dollars, have been delayed for years due to the war and Western sanctions.

Russia's shifting economic reliance on oil

The war is challenging Russia's status as a petro-state. Although the country is the world's second-largest oil producer, behind the United States, the share of oil and gas in its GDP is significantly declining. This share has decreased from 20% in 2022, the first year of the war against Ukraine, to 13% in 2025.