Having an exit plan provides reassurance, but does it make us more solid? Psychological research is examining this question. Many people keep an updated CV "just in case," consider a career change in the back of their mind, or have a backup plan for every project. This caution is often seen as a sign of maturity and can help reduce anxiety about the future. However, recent studies suggest that having a backup plan might not always protect us as much as we think—and in some cases, it might even hurt our focus on our main goal.
In a 2016 study published in Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, researchers Jihae Shin from the University of Wisconsin and Katherine Milkman from Wharton explored how thinking about a backup plan can affect performance on a main goal. In three experiments, participants who were asked to think about a backup plan performed worse on their primary task. The researchers found that this effect occurs because thinking about alternatives can weaken the desire to achieve the original goal. In one experiment, participants were asked to imagine different ways to get free food on campus. Those who thought about alternatives performed worse than those who focused on their main idea.
This finding was later supported by a 2023 study involving 195 adolescents. It found that those who focused more on their backup plan achieved less in their main goal, likely because they ended up relying on it. However, these studies measured the effect of a single reflection in a controlled setting, not a long-term personality trait. Jihae Shin emphasizes that this does not mean people should abandon caution. Instead, she advises focusing all efforts on achieving the main goal first, and only turning to a backup plan once every possible effort has been made.
Not all plans are the same. In a 2006 meta-analysis, researchers found that a specific type of plan—called "implementation intentions"—had a strong positive effect on goal success. These are plans that specify in advance when, where, and how to act, such as "if such a situation arises, then I will do this." Unlike general backup plans, these detailed plans do not predict failure—they prepare for action. The difference seems to lie in how the backup plan is framed. A plan that says "I don't believe it completely" may weaken motivation, while a plan that says "if... then..." shows confidence in moving forward while being prepared for challenges. This reasoning is an interpretation of the studies, not a measured result, but it offers a practical approach: focus first on a clear plan for action, and keep the backup plan for later.
Backup Plans May Undermine Primary Goals, Research Suggests
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