France faces rising economic and health costs from heat, with construction losing millions in working hours and billions in income. Global impacts are also significant.
Heat impacts French work hours
The Lancet Countdown 2026 report highlights the economic and health impacts of rising temperatures on France. Between 2016 and 2025, exposure to heat caused an estimated average loss of 79 million potential working hours per year, an 85% increase compared to the average annual figure of the 1990s.Construction sector bears the brunt
The construction sector appears to be the main loser, accounting for nearly 60% of the potential working hours compromised by heat during this period. For the year 2025 alone, the reduction in working capacity caused by high temperatures would have represented about 2.69 billion euros in lost potential income in France, with construction accounting for 49% of this amount, or about 1.32 billion euros.Methodology and limitations
The 79 million hours represent an annual average over ten years, while the 2.69 billion euros concern only 2025. The method used to calculate these figures mainly covers paid activities of the formal economy and does not account for all domestic, informal, or unpaid work. The potential loss of income is calculated from compromised working hours and sectoral wages, with assumptions intended to fill certain statistical gaps.Global economic impact
On a global scale, heat would have caused the loss of 573 billion potential working hours in 2025, a 35% increase compared to the annual average of 2006-2015. The potential lost income worldwide reaches about 961 billion euros, representing 0.91% of global GDP. In contrast to France, where construction is at the top, agriculture accounts for 38% of the estimated losses globally.Health costs in France
Beyond production, climate change produces indirect economic consequences, notably through its effects on health and mortality. In France, the average annual value of deaths related to heat among people over 65 years old is estimated at about 7.19 billion euros between 2021 and 2025, a 153% increase compared to the period 2000-2004. This amount represents the equivalent of 457,800 average French incomes.Rising heat-related deaths
In the French cities studied by the Lancet Countdown Europe, the average annual rate of heat-related deaths increased by 73 per million inhabitants between the periods 1991-2000 and 2015-2024. In Perpignan, this rate increased from 10.7 to 139.2 deaths per million inhabitants, a 1,184% increase. Martigues and Toulouse also record significant relative increases, respectively 965% and 919%.Population and risk factors
In 2023, about 26.8 million people lived in the 72 French cities included in the statistical scope of the study, about 40% of the national population. Among them, 4.7 million were over 65 years old and 4.8 million under 15 years old. The demographic weight of the heat-sensitive categories strengthens the economic stakes of urban adaptation, without it being possible to deduce an additional budgetary cost from these data alone.Global health costs
On a global scale, the average annual monetary value of heat-related mortality among those over 65 years old is estimated at about 287 billion euros during the period 2016-2025, an increase of 47% compared to the decade 2006-2015.Energy transition progress
If climate change is increasing some economic costs, the energy transition is already producing measurable results. In France, greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the cities followed by the Lancet Countdown Europe have decreased by 42.6% between 2000 and 2024. In the energy sector, the decrease reaches 68%. In 2023, low-carbon sources represented 90% of the national electricity production, but only 46.7% of the total energy supply.Fossil fuel dependence
Road transport constitutes one of the main weaknesses. In 2023, fossil fuels still provided 92% of the energy used on French roads, while electricity represented only 0.5%. In households, natural gas and fossil liquid fuels accounted for 36.5% of energy consumption in 2023, a proportion declining by 18% since 2016. Harmful biomass represented 18.7% of this consumption.Pollution reduction
Premature mortality attributable to fine particles PM2.5 from electricity production has decreased by 82% in French cities between 2000 and 2023. Across all sectors, mortality attributable to particles from polluting fuels has decreased by 52% over the same period.Urban pollution and carbon balance
In Paris, premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 from polluting fuels reached 86 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, transport representing 38% of this indicator. In 2024, France had a positive balance of about 3.32 billion euros between the revenues from carbon pricing mechanisms and the support for fossil fuels. For the 87 countries examined in 2024, researchers from the Lancet Countdown estimate the net global support for fossil fuels at about 726 billion euros.Urban greenery and transport
Global warming also requires reconsidering certain choices of planning and infrastructure. In France, trees covered on average only 9.2% of the surface area of the cities studied in 2020, while the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe recommends at least 30% tree coverage. In the Paris metropolitan area, 19,500 hectares were covered with trees, or 8.9% of the area considered.Transport and urban planning
In 2022, French cities obtained an average score of 5 out of 10 for accessibility to walking, cycling, and public transport, against a good performance threshold set at 7 out of 10. Dedicated bike lanes represented only 9.5% of the roads studied, while 30% of the urban area was within 250 meters of a public transport stop. Between 2018 and 2020, only 14% of cycling routes and shared pedestrian and cyclist paths had tree shade.Workplace adaptations
For French companies, particularly those in construction, the results of the Lancet Countdown also raise a question of work organization. Adjusting hours, protecting exposed employees, cooling premises, or modifying certain site practices are all possible responses to the increase in thermal stress. They require trade-offs between immediate costs, working conditions, and production capacity.Research funding
Finally, the study authors recall that funding for research on the links between climate and health remains an ongoing challenge. On a global scale, the funds recorded for this research reached about 284 million euros in 2024, compared to about 38 million euros in 2016, an increase of 655% over this period.
