Global cereal prices fall

Wheat and corn prices dropped in global markets between October 16 and 19, 2026, according to La Dépêche Le petit meunier. Wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by 1 to more than 5 cents per bushel, with the December 2026 contract losing 5.25 cents to reach 655.25 cents per bushel.

European markets see modest declines

On Euronext, wheat prices stabilized around 243–244 euros per ton, with the December 2026 contract decreasing by 0.25 euros per ton to 243.50 euros per ton. Corn prices on the CBOT also declined, with the December 2026 contract losing 7.25 cents per bushel to 467 cents per bushel. On Euronext, corn prices fell by 1 to 2 euros per ton on most contracts, with the March 2027 contract decreasing by 1.25 euros per ton to 270.25 euros per ton.

High production and trade drive price drops

The decline in prices is attributed to abundant global supplies and continued comfortable production prospects among major exporters. Russia's Ministry of Agriculture reported a wheat production of 140 million tons in 2026, and winter wheat planting is at 70%. Argentina's 2025/26 cereal campaign has seen more than 105 million tons of grains traded, with 23.2 million tons of wheat already committed, 94% at a fixed price.

U.S. support aims to keep production strong

The United States is providing 8 billion dollars in financial support to its farmers through the Harvest Fuel Relief (HFR) program, aiming to maintain high production levels and support liquidity for American producers. This aid is intended to ensure continued domestic output and stable market conditions.

Ukrainian grain finds new export routes

Ukrainian grain exports have gained fluidity through the Romanian axis, with increased railway exports to Romania, Hungary, and Poland. However, coordination problems between private railway operators and the infrastructure manager in Romania are slowing flows to the port of Constanța. Hungary has indicated willingness to allow Ukrainian grain transit through its territory, provided the grain is not sold domestically but transported to Western Europe.

Speculative trading and currency effects

Speculative funds have opposing positions between the CBOT and Euronext, with a net short position of about 29,500 contracts on wheat SRW as of October 6, 2026, and a net long position of more than 143,500 contracts on Euronext as of October 14. The euro has depreciated slightly against the dollar, with an exchange rate of 1.1225 dollars per euro on October 19, 2026.

French markets show slight declines

French physical markets for cereals on October 19, 2026, showed slight declines in prices, with soft wheat prices ranging from 220.50 euros per ton to 249.50 euros per ton and corn prices ranging from 265.75 euros per ton to 316.00 euros per ton. The decline in global cereal prices is also influenced by the abundant harvests in Russia, Argentina, and the United States, as well as the increased supply from Ukraine through alternative transit routes.