A class of CE2, a second grade in the French primary system, now has fewer than twenty students. Just a decade ago, this number would have seemed impossible. Since 2018, French primary schools have been losing students year after year in a continuous and now massive way. The decline in births since the beginning of the 2010s is the main reason behind this ongoing drop in school enrollments. By 2035, the primary level is expected to lose 933,000 students, a decrease of 15.2 percent, with a total of 1,676,800 fewer students across both primary and secondary levels. This decline is not due to changes in education policies or private schooling, as commonly assumed, but rather to the drop in births since 2015.
At the last enrollment, the primary level counted 6,149,400 students, a decrease of 121,600 compared to the previous year across the entire school system. This marked a clear acceleration in the decline, according to statisticians at the National Education. However, this was only the beginning. For the upcoming enrollment, the expected decline rises to 160,000 students, with 125,400 of those in the primary level alone, a drop of two percent in a single year. In an average school, this means classes are emptying, enrollments are collapsing, and school directors are struggling to fill their registration lists.
The most dramatic changes are seen in the kindergarten section, the first stage of the school system and the first to reflect demographic shifts. A loss of 46,500 students is expected in the upcoming enrollment, a significant drop that signals future declines in elementary and secondary levels. Official projections for the next ten years show the primary level falling to 5.22 million students by 2035, a decrease of 15.2 percent. This shift will reshape the entire school map, with a total decrease of 14.2 percent in the French school population, meaning one in six students will disappear from enrollments over a decade.
While it is tempting to look for more visible or political causes for the decline, such as the influence of private education or the rural exodus, these factors only account for a small fraction of the overall trend. The decline affects all areas, including metropolitan regions like Paris and academies in the East and North. The only exception is vocational high schools, whose enrollments are expected to slightly increase before stabilizing and eventually declining. This exception highlights the broader demographic trend affecting the rest of the school system.
The continuous decline in births has concrete consequences. The average number of students per class has fallen to about 21.3 in 2025, which may seem beneficial for classroom management but hides the risk of underfilling for many schools. Schools may be forced to merge classes or close certain locations when enrollments are too low to justify their continued operation. This demographic reality now forces the managers of the National Education to make difficult choices, balancing between cutting positions and reallocating resources. It also raises the broader question of how the French school system, designed for growth, will adapt to a long-term decline.
French School Enrollment Decline Linked to Long-Term Birth Rate Drop
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