Growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow at 4.5 percent in 2026 and 2027, according to the October 2026 update of the International Monetary Fund's Regional Economic Outlook, titled Resilient Growth, Clouded Outlook. This forecast is slightly higher than the one from April 2026, but the IMF warns that this growth is under threat from several risks.

Diverging economic paths

Different countries within Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to have varying growth rates. Oil-exporting nations are projected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2026, while resource-dependent economies may see growth at 3.8 percent. Countries with less reliance on natural resources are expected to grow at 6 percent, down from 6.4 percent in 2025. The IMF attributes some of the resilience to adjustments in supply chains and increased non-Gulf oil production.

Energy market risks

One major risk is related to energy markets and their impact on production costs. The IMF assumes a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and predicts an average oil price of 96 dollars per barrel in 2026, falling to 87 dollars in 2027. However, the markets for refined products, especially diesel, remain under tension. Fertilizer prices are expected to rise by 26 percent in 2026 compared to 2025, increasing costs for energy and agricultural imports.

Climate-related risks

Another risk is climate-related, with the El Niño phenomenon potentially causing rainfall deficits in some areas and excessive precipitation in others. This could affect harvests, infrastructure, and hydroelectric power. The IMF highlights past issues, such as the 2023-2024 drought in Zambia, which reduced maize production and prolonged electricity shortages. The report also outlines a scenario where global agricultural prices could rise by 20 percent, further reducing growth and increasing inflation.

Financing and debt challenges

A third risk involves international financing conditions. Some countries have raised about 12 billion dollars in euro-denominated bonds in 2026, but this does not mean borrowing has become easier for all. A shift in investor risk appetite could raise loan costs and complicate debt refinancing. The IMF notes that U.S. Treasury bond yields have risen significantly in 2026, increasing the burden on African governments managing high interest payments and limited budget margins.

Decline in external aid

The IMF also identifies a decline in external aid as a threat to the region's economic prospects. Bilateral aid for sub-Saharan Africa is expected to fall by another 12 percent in 2026, reducing available resources for public spending and responding to crises. To address these vulnerabilities, the IMF recommends that governments adjust budgets, save a portion of commodity revenues, and target aid more effectively at vulnerable populations. It also stresses the importance of maintaining productive investments and strengthening financial mechanisms to handle shocks.