Shahin Vallée, a former economic advisor to French President Emmanuel Macron at the Ministry of Economy, has warned that France is entering a "historical danger zone" due to rising debt concerns. In the past three weeks, the financial spread between France and Germany—measured by the difference in interest rates for 10-year government bonds—has widened significantly. Germany is considered the safest borrower in the eurozone, and the spread, which had been under 70 basis points (bps) in the spring, now exceeds 110 bps. This means France is paying 1.1% more in interest on its debt compared to Germany.
Vallée explained that this increase has serious financial implications for France. Over a ten-year period, the country could face an additional debt burden of 15 billion euros annually, totaling nearly 100 billion euros over the decade. This amount is equivalent to about one and a half times the budget of the Justice department or half the budget of Higher Education and Research. Public investment in France amounts to around 130 billion euros annually.
The current spread is approaching two major historical peaks. In November 2011, during the European sovereign debt crisis, the spread reached 211 bps. Earlier, in 1983, before the euro was introduced, the spread had climbed to nearly 700 bps, forcing the government under Prime Minister François Mitterrand to abandon socialist economic policies and implement austerity measures for a time.
The economic risk is tied to the formula "r > g," where the interest rate on debt (r) exceeds the nominal growth of the economy (g). This situation can cause the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise even without new borrowing, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. Higher interest rates increase debt costs, which can further alarm financial markets and push rates even higher.
The French government, currently without a parliamentary majority and amid a presidential campaign, has limited flexibility in responding to these challenges. Article 47, paragraph 3, of the French Constitution allows the government to implement the budget by decree if the National Assembly fails to act within a set timeframe. However, no government has ever used this provision, and it requires a 70-day waiting period for parliamentary debates before any action can be taken.
French Debt Enters Critical Zone as Spread Widens with Economic Concerns
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