During a conference at the Livestock Summit, the Inosys Bovins Viande team from the Charolais basin presented simulations of how drought might impact the economic outcomes of typical cattle farming operations. Caroline Monniot, an agro-economist from the Institut de l'élevage, noted that the summer of 2026 had significantly less rainfall than usual, with an average 40% reduction in precipitation across the region. By September, the deficit had grown to 70%. These conditions severely limited the growth of grass, which is crucial for feeding livestock. Regions such as Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Centre Val-de-Loire, and Grand-Est were particularly affected. In the Charolais basin, by September 20, grass growth was only 50% of the annual average, compared to the usual 88% at that time of year, according to Christèle Pineau, project leader at the Institut de l'élevage. In many farms, cows have been fed from July, and grazing has not resumed in the autumn, leading to a shortage of forage. The Inosys Bovins Viande team simulated the economic effects of the forage shortage on two types of cattle farming systems: one that raises and fattens cattle, and another that raises cattle for sale as mature females. They considered two typical farm models. One involved raising young cattle for fattening, with 140 hectares of land, including 107 hectares of grass and 6 hectares of silage maize. The other focused on raising cattle for sale as mature females, with 165 hectares of land and a different mix of grass and silage. Both systems are typically self-sufficient in forage, but the simulations showed that without the drought, their economic performance would still be strong, though slightly lower due to rising costs and falling prices this summer. To assess the drought’s impact, the team assumed a 75% reduction in silage corn yield and a 20% drop in harvested grass. They also considered a summer feeding period of 120 days, from July to October, followed by a 150-day winter period, from early November to early April. The team used a winter ration made of straw and molasses and assumed a forage purchase price of 160 euros per ton. However, they did not include additional labor costs or increased expenses for feeding and watering during the summer, nor did they evaluate the long-term effects on livestock health, such as fertility issues or abortions, which could affect production over several years. The simulations revealed that the economic efficiency, measured by EBE (Earnings Before Expenses), dropped nearly 50% in the suckler systems. For the system that sells mature females, the winter forage shortage was estimated at 94 tons, and the cost of the drought was calculated at 400 euros per unit of cattle. The EBE dropped to 79,591 euros, with a 25% efficiency rate. In the suckler fattening system, the winter forage shortage was 73 tons. The team explored three strategies: purchasing the missing forage while maintaining regular management, feeding the breeding herd in the summer, and switching to dry feed for the cattle and stopping the fattening of males. The first two strategies cost around 310 euros per unit, while the third, involving the sale of heifers, had a higher cost and led to a significant drop in EBE. Despite these challenges, the team concluded that continuing to produce meat remained economically viable, though the high cost of forage and limited availability could make it difficult to implement these strategies. Decisions will depend on the availability of forage, by-products, and each farm’s financial situation.