Wheat and corn prices drop after USDA report

Wheat and corn prices declined sharply in response to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) WASDE report published on Friday, October 8, 2026. The report indicated higher U.S. corn yields and production, along with increased end-of-campaign stocks, which influenced market expectations.

USDA updates U.S. and EU wheat production

According to the report, U.S. wheat production was slightly increased to 41.75 million metric tons (Mt), while European Union wheat production was revised downward to 133 Mt. Global wheat production estimates remained nearly unchanged at 822.39 Mt, reflecting a stable outlook despite regional variations.

Wheat prices fall on major exchanges

Wheat prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT) fell by 2 to more than 12 cents per bushel, with the December 2026 contract dropping 12.25 cents to 671 cents per bushel. On Euronext, wheat prices declined by 1 to nearly 4 euros per ton, with the December 2026 contract decreasing by 2.25 euros per ton to 242 euros per ton.

Corn prices also drop on global markets

Corn prices on the CBOT also fell sharply, with the December 2026 contract losing 20.5 cents per bushel to 479.75 cents, while the March 2027 contract dropped 21 cents to 494.25 cents. On Euronext, corn prices declined by 1 to nearly 5 euros per ton, with the November 2026 contract falling 0.75 euros per ton to 273.25 euros per ton.

Dollar strengthens against the euro

The dollar continued its appreciation against the euro, with the euro trading at 1.1202 dollars on Friday, compared to 1.1217 the previous day. This movement could affect trade balances and commodity pricing in international markets.

Oil prices show mixed performance

Oil prices showed slight increases on Friday, with the December Brent delivery rising 0.28 percent to 104.42 dollars per barrel and the November WTI delivery increasing 0.15 percent to 91.64 dollars per barrel. However, prices declined slightly in the morning, with WTI losing 0.95 percent and Brent 0.24 percent.

Diesel prices remain under pressure

Diesel prices remained under pressure due to limited refining capacities, but a new energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, announced by Donald Trump, may have contributed to the decline in oil prices. This agreement could ease some of the tensions affecting energy markets.

French crop sowing lags behind schedule

In France, wheat sowing started late, with only 4 percent of the planned areas sown by October 5, compared to an average of 6 percent over the past five years. Winter barley sowing reached 7 percent of the national area planned, compared to an average of 12 percent at the same date.

Poor corn sowing conditions in France

Corn sowing conditions were particularly poor, with only 22 percent of the areas considered in good to very good condition by October 5, compared to an average of 66 percent over the past five years. However, the harvest of corn was nearly three weeks ahead of schedule, reaching 84 percent of the areas by October 5, compared to an average of 31 percent.

Turkey proposes Black Sea traffic corridors

Turkey proposed the creation of two distinct corridors in the Black Sea to separate Ukrainian and Russian maritime traffic, aiming to reduce the risk of incidents and potentially reopen cereal exports. This proposal follows an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which has raised hopes for a renewed agreement on cereal transportation.

Black Sea blockage affects cereal exports

The blockage of maritime exports in the Black Sea has led to a significant accumulation of cereals in Ukraine and Russia, creating a paradox where domestic prices are falling due to increasing stocks, while global prices remain supported by reduced exportable availability.

Ukrainian and Russian cereal exports decline

According to UkrAgroConsult, combined wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia decreased by 6.5 Mt over the year from July to September 2026, with a potential deficit of 10.2 Mt by the end of October if disruptions persist. Alternative logistics via the Danube, rail, or Baltic ports only partially compensate for the loss of maritime capacity.

Storage and logistics challenges in Ukraine

In Ukraine, the saturation of storage capacities and increased logistics costs are affecting farmers' revenues. In Russia, an abundant harvest of 140 Mt is intensifying pressure on domestic prices in exporting regions, complicating the export situation.

Medium-term risk for global wheat markets

The main risk for the global market lies in the medium term, with an eventual reopening of maritime corridors in 2027 potentially allowing the rapid disposal of accumulated stocks in Ukraine and Russia. This could lead to increased competition between exporters and downward pressure on global wheat prices.