NASA estimates 22 SpaceX launches needed

NASA’s aerospace safety panel has calculated that 22 SpaceX launches would be required to refuel the Starship lunar vehicle in low Earth orbit, a significant increase from earlier estimates.

Elon Musk disputes the estimate

Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX, believes the figure is overly pessimistic, arguing that it does not reflect the company’s future capabilities or improvements in technology.

Artemis IV faces logistical challenge

The proposed number of launches poses a challenge for the Artemis IV program, which aims to return humans to the Moon, as it would require a substantial logistical effort to support such a high number of resupply missions.

Estimate has risen over three years

The estimate has grown from nine to twelve launches in 2023 to the current projection of 22, reflecting changes in the performance and efficiency of the Starship launcher over time.

Fuel efficiency determines launch count

Each resupply mission currently transports only a fraction of the propellant needed, and the number of launches depends on how efficiently each transfer operates, with the evaporation of cryogenic fuel in orbit still not fully understood.

SpaceX to test cryogenic transfer in 2027

SpaceX plans to begin testing cryogenic fuel transfer between spacecraft in early 2027, a maneuver that has never been successfully performed in flight between two spacecraft.

Apollo missions used stable fuels

The Apollo missions, which took astronauts to the Moon in the 1960s and 1970s, used hypergolic fuels that remain stable at room temperature, unlike the cryogenic fuels used by Starship.