Since the 1978 proposal by NASA researcher Donald Kessler, experts have warned about the growing risk of a chain reaction of collisions in Earth's orbit. Known as the Kessler syndrome, this scenario describes a situation where the number of space debris fragments increases so rapidly that collisions become frequent, creating even more debris and making certain orbits unusable. The European Space Agency (ESA) has recently updated its projections, suggesting this risk is approaching faster than previously thought. In its 2026 annual report on the space environment, published on September 14, the ESA confirms that the number of objects in orbit is growing rapidly, driven by the increasing number of satellites and the limited efforts to remove old ones from crowded paths. The ESA highlights several factors contributing to this trend. Satellite constellations, such as those operated by SpaceX, Amazon, and Chinese companies, are expanding rapidly, with thousands of satellites being launched each year. Meanwhile, only a small number of satellites are removed from orbit after their missions end, increasing the likelihood of collisions. According to the ESA, slightly more than three intact satellites or rocket stages fall back to Earth daily, while ten new payloads are launched. This imbalance, combined with the frequent changes in satellite altitudes, is reducing the number of "clear" orbits available for future missions. The ESA estimates that, at the current rate, a cascade of collisions could occur over the next century, making space operations more complex and expensive. The agency has adjusted its simulations to a 100-year timeframe, as the orbital environment is changing more rapidly than expected. These projections suggest that the number of objects in low Earth orbit—both satellites and debris—could rise from about 25,000 cataloged objects at the end of 2025 to over 400,000 objects larger than 10 cm in size. This would result in approximately 1,750 cumulative destructive collisions, significantly increasing the risk to active satellites. The ESA acknowledges that its projections are based on past and current activities, and do not include future plans, such as SpaceX’s request to launch up to a million satellites. The agency emphasizes that the situation could either improve or worsen depending on how satellite operators manage their debris. While some measures, like deorbiting systems, have been implemented, the ESA says progress is too slow. As a result, future space missions may require more frequent calculations and avoidance maneuvers, increasing both complexity and cost.