Grocery price rise expected in 2027

In 2027, the cost of groceries is expected to rise, though the exact percentage remains uncertain. Thierry Cotillard, president of the Mousquetaires group, warned during an interview with France Inter at the end of September about an "inflation wall" that will be determined by commercial negotiations set to begin on December 1.

Annual negotiations set prices for a year

These negotiations, which take place annually between retailers such as Carrefour, Leclerc, and Intermarché and their suppliers, dictate prices on store shelves for an entire year. The height of this inflation wall is difficult to predict, but Cotillard hinted that a food inflation similar to those of 2022 and 2023, which reached +6.8% and +11.8% respectively according to INSEE, could not be ruled out.

Retailers and industrialists have conflicting interests

The negotiations are expected to be more tense than ever, as retailers and industrialists have conflicting interests. Retailers accuse industrialists of unjustified price increases, while industrialists claim retailers try to buy at the lowest price. This year, in an inflationary context, these tensions are likely to be even more pronounced.

Industrialists seek to recover past losses

Industrialists, who have faced increased costs for agricultural products, packaging, and energy, are seeking to recover the increases not obtained last year. According to the mediator of commercial relations, the food industry had asked for an average increase of 5.7% last year but only obtained 1.5%.

ANIA seeks compensation for past and current inflation

The National Association of Food Industries (ANIA) states that during the upcoming negotiations, an increase that accounts for both the 2026 inflation and the increases not obtained last year will be requested. However, ANIA refuses to provide a precise figure, stating it is too early to determine the exact amount. At a minimum, a 3% increase is expected, though this can vary significantly depending on the companies involved.

Wheat and plastic costs have risen sharply

For instance, wheat prices have increased by 15% in a year, and the cost of plastic, used for packaging by a majority of industrialists, has risen by 40% on average. These increases are expected to be passed on to consumers during the upcoming negotiations.

Middle East war affects food prices

The impact of the war in the Middle East has also contributed to the rise in food prices. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 5% of global cereals transit, has caused an increase in the price of a ton of wheat, which is currently selling around 234 euros, about 15% more expensive than exactly a year ago. Additionally, the war in Iran has led to an increase in the cost of agricultural fertilizers.

Drought worsens food price pressures

The drought this summer has also had a significant impact on food prices, with fruits and vegetables alone experiencing a +9.5% increase in September. Thierry Pouch, chief economist at the Chambers of Agriculture, notes that the drought has caused poor harvests, leading to further price increases. The economist warns that these increases may become even more pronounced in the coming months.

Potato size decrease signals rising costs

For example, the size of potatoes has decreased due to the drought, which could lead to more expensive and smaller frozen fries. This trend highlights the growing pressure on food prices and the challenges faced by both producers and retailers.

Government seeks to mediate price disputes

The government is organizing a meeting with industrialists and retailers on November 2 to build a "responsibility pact" between stakeholders. However, reaching an agreement is not guaranteed. In the meantime, the RMC BFM basket remains stable, with prices fluctuating only according to the increases or decreases in the prices of fresh products, especially fruits and vegetables.

Small price changes signal future inflation

A recent increase of 10 cents on the price of a kilogram of potatoes at Carrefour has been noted, signaling potential food inflation in the near future. This small but noticeable change could be an early indicator of broader price increases to come.