First Quantum Minerals revises production forecasts

First Quantum Minerals, a Canadian mining company, operates two major copper mines in Zambia: Kansanshi and Sentinel. These mines accounted for about 42% of Zambia’s total copper production in 2025, which was 890,346 tonnes.

Lower grades affect production estimates

In its financial report released on October 28, First Quantum lowered its production forecasts for both mines. The company cited lower-than-expected grades of copper ore at Kansanshi and Sentinel, along with reduced recovery rates, as the main reasons for the revision.

New production targets for 2026

For 2026, the expected production at Kansanshi has been reduced to a range of 175,000 to 185,000 tonnes, down from an initial forecast of 175,000 to 205,000 tonnes. At Sentinel, the target has been adjusted from 190,000 to 220,000 tonnes to 190,000 to 200,000 tonnes.

Zambia’s copper production goals remain unchanged

Despite the revised forecasts, the combined output of both mines in 2026 could still reach up to 385,000 tonnes, which would be a slight increase compared to 2025. However, this would still fall below the upper end of the original projections. The Zambian government aims to boost national copper production to one million tonnes by 2026.

Fourth quarter results will clarify outlook

The performance of First Quantum’s mines in the fourth quarter of 2025 will provide more clarity on the company’s annual production trajectory. This will also help assess how closely the company is aligning with Zambia’s national copper production goals.