Housing construction outlook worsens in France

The outlook for new housing construction in France has worsened again in October 2026, according to a survey by Insee, the French national statistics office, released on October 23. Developers report weaker demand and greater challenges in financing for buyers, indicating a growing concern in the sector.

Opinion balances show declining confidence

The opinion balance on the outlook for construction starts stands at −27 points in October, down from −20 in July. The balance relating to the demand for new housing falls to −43 points, the lowest in two years, after −37 in the previous three months.

Market segments face different challenges

The decline affects several segments of the market. For housing intended for sale, the opinion balance on future construction projects drops from −35 to −41 points. In rental housing, mainly social housing, the balance decreases from +1 to −8 points. Fewer developers are planning to launch new projects, with only 52 percent intending to start studies with architects or engineering firms, compared to a long-term average of 62 percent.

Survey measures developer intentions, not actual numbers

These results are based on opinion balances, which measure the difference between favorable and unfavorable responses from surveyed companies, not a percentage change in the number of houses built. The survey, conducted between September 25 and October 20, collected responses from professionals, though Insee notes the response rate is usually lower than in other business surveys.

Financing conditions seen as less favorable

Developers also report less favorable financing conditions for their customers. The balance on financing means declines to −39 points in October, after −35 in July. The balance on the personal contribution of potential buyers drops to −26 points, its lowest since January 2015.

Unsold housing and prices remain under pressure

Unsold housing stocks remain significantly above their historical average, with the opinion balance stable at −10 points. The opinion balance on average prices of houses for sale falls to −24 points, the lowest since April 2015, reflecting a more unfavorable perception of price trends among developers.

Sector faces uncertainty ahead

The detailed results from Insee outline a conjuncture where demand, construction projects, and customer financing are simultaneously weakening. The sector now faces the challenge of determining whether these expectations will lead to a further decline in the opening of construction sites in the coming months. Upcoming construction statistics and sales data will help assess whether professional pessimism aligns with actual activity.