A new study has warned that Australia must act urgently and ambitiously to meet its climate goals, as global warming is expected to surpass the 1.5°C threshold within the next five years. This level of warming could lead to severe consequences, such as faster melting of ice sheets and significant damage to coral reefs. The study, conducted by researchers at Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, suggests that the world can still limit warming to about 1.7°C, reach net-zero emissions by the 2060s, and bring warming back below 1.5°C by 2100—provided governments act immediately. Fossil fuels, such as oil, coal, and natural gas, are responsible for over 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Australia, one of the world's largest exporters of fossil fuels, contributes about 4.5% of global carbon dioxide emissions. To follow the recommended path, Australia would need to reduce its net emissions by 55% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, under current policies, Australia is expected to barely meet its 2030 target of a 43% reduction, likely leaving 245 million tonnes of emissions to be offset by 2050. To stay on track, Australia would need to significantly reduce its coal and liquefied natural gas production—by 80% and 25%, respectively, by 2035. Coal exports would need to fall by 95% by 2040. Decarbonization, which involves shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, is critical. By 2035, electricity must supply 50% of Australia's energy needs, up from 25% in 2025. However, current policies are expected to only achieve 33% electrification by 2035, meaning the 35% goal proposed by Australia and Turkey at this year’s COP31 summit is essentially maintaining the status quo. Major policy changes are needed to achieve these targets, including making the current nonbinding goal of 82% renewable energy by 2030 legally enforceable. The Safeguard Mechanism, a federal policy that sets legally binding pollution limits for industrial facilities, needs stronger enforcement. In 2025, industrial emissions fell by just 2.3%, far below the 4.9% annual decline required. Data from 196 industrial facilities covered by the mechanism showed a combined emissions drop of just 0.4% over the past two years. In the transport sector, which is heavily reliant on oil, there are calls to end new gasoline and diesel car sales by 2035. However, the government has not yet developed policies to electrify heavy-vehicle freight. Emissions from mining, one of the few industries still increasing fossil fuel use, could be reduced to zero by 2045 if diesel is replaced with electricity in trucks, equipment, and processing. Despite this, the Albanese government has approved 37 new or expanded fossil fuel projects since taking office and has 42 more under consideration. This contradicts the International Court of Justice’s 2025 advisory opinion, which stated that licensing new fossil fuel projects could be considered an “internationally wrongful act.” As Australia prepares to lead talks at COP31, it faces the challenge of promoting a fossil fuel transition while still falling short of its own climate targets.