Tanker struck by mine in Hormuz

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran reported on Saturday, October 17, that a super tanker was hit by a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, causing it to catch fire. The IRGC claimed the vessel was attempting to cross the strait illegally while carrying over two million barrels of crude oil, and that it was supported by the U.S. military by disabling its tracking systems.

Increased attacks on shipping in the region

Since late September, there has been a noticeable rise in attacks on ships in the region. According to the Financial Times, at least 24 ships were struck in the two weeks leading up to October 11, based on data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a service of the Royal Navy. Iran asserts control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes.

Strait of Hormuz and its strategic importance

The Strait of Hormuz is approximately thirty kilometers wide at its narrowest point, bordered by Iran on the north and Oman on the south. Iran has restricted access to the strait, and ships that attempt to pass without its approval are often targeted. Many vessels now try to avoid detection by following the Omani coastline, which Iran views as a violation and a justification for retaliation.

Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions

Oil prices have climbed back to their high levels from May, influenced by ongoing conflicts in the Gulf. On Friday, the December contract for Brent crude oil rose 3.72% to $109.86 per barrel, reaching just below $110 for the first time since May. The U.S. equivalent, West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery, also increased by 3.51% to $101.41 per barrel.

Political and military factors affecting oil markets

Analysts from Briefing.com note that rising oil prices are occurring amid growing concerns about supply shortages. These concerns are compounded by threats from Yemen's Houthi rebels to launch new attacks on Saudi Arabia, which has been a major oil producer. Additionally, there is speculation about potential U.S. military actions against Iran following the midterm elections.

Ukraine and energy developments

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Financial Times that attacks on Russian oil refineries would resume after a temporary pause linked to an unexpected energy truce announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, European gas prices have also risen, with the Dutch TTF futures contract reaching €88.76 per megawatt-hour on Friday evening, a level commonly seen since 2022.