Agentic commerce, a new form of shopping powered by artificial intelligence (AI), has passed its first major test: proving that consumers are actually using it. ChatGPT, one of the most popular AI tools, handles around 50 million shopping-related questions daily, and traffic to US retail websites from AI recommendations surged by nearly 400% in the first quarter of 2026. While the initial demand is clear, the real question is where this traffic leads once a purchase is made. The early signs point to large, well-known marketplaces as the main destination. According to Similarweb, marketplaces are receiving more AI-referred traffic than any other retail category, with around 47 million visits recorded between January 2025 and May 2026. This trend is growing faster than expected, driven by a cycle where consumer preferences and AI recommendations reinforce each other. Large language models (LLMs), the technology behind AI assistants, tend to recommend platforms with broad product selections, organized data, and strong customer reviews. Large marketplaces, with their extensive catalogs and verified seller networks, are well-suited to meet these criteria. This trend challenges some earlier assumptions. Shopify’s president, Harley Finkelstein, once argued that agentic commerce would help smaller merchants gain visibility by allowing AI to recommend a wider range of products. While AI traffic to Shopify stores has grown significantly—by about eight times in a year—the data shows that most of this traffic is directed to large marketplaces rather than independent sellers. In fact, marketplaces are absorbing the majority of AI-driven shopping traffic, and attempts by broader platforms to onboard many small sellers have faced challenges. OpenAI, for example, has scaled back its open checkout feature, citing difficulties in verifying and onboarding a large number of merchants. The growing reliance on marketplaces is not just about consumer trust. It’s also about practicality. Marketplaces already have systems in place to handle payments, customer support, and dispute resolution—functions that AI assistants typically avoid. This makes them more attractive to both consumers and the AI models that guide them. Moreover, the economic incentives for AI assistants also favor marketplaces. These platforms often offer affiliate commissions and have streamlined payment systems, making it easier for AI to recommend them. As a result, agentic commerce may be accelerating the shift toward marketplaces, reinforcing their dominance in the retail landscape. For smaller retailers, this shift could mean that participating in a marketplace becomes more important than going it alone. While larger retailers may choose to create their own marketplaces, like Kingfisher, Tesco, and Target have done, smaller merchants may find it more practical to sell through established platforms. This trend could reshape the retail industry, with marketplaces playing an even greater role in how consumers shop.