A specter looms over France: that of the disappearance, within the next fifteen years, of the baby-boomer generation. And an entire generation of middle-aged people is about to inherit a colossal real estate portfolio. Will this resolve the housing crisis? Of course not, explains Alexandre Delaigue, an economics professor. Charlie Hebdo: In the next fifteen years, the boomers will die. And release hundreds of thousands of real estate properties across France, which will therefore go to their children. Is this what is called the "great transmission"? Alexandre Delaigue: Indeed, there will be a property transfer estimated at 9,000 billion euros that will occur over the next fifteen years, combining all assets, both movable and immovable. This refers to the transfer of the baby-boomers' estate upon their death. And this estate is composed of two-thirds real estate. It is simply inheritance, the capital accumulated throughout their lives by very numerous generations. At the beginning of the 1970s, a couple of junior professors, with a salary of 3,000 francs, could, by normally taking on debt, obtain a loan to buy 50 m² in Paris. In the 1990s, this loan was repaid, the salary had risen to 10,000 francs. Between the years 2000 and 2020, the value of these properties exploded. The apartment is now worth about 500,000 euros – today, a couple of professors, even at the end of their careers, cannot afford this. If you want to own a 50 m² apartment in the capital, you must either inherit it or belong to the 3% or 4% of the richest French people. Will this great transmission from the boomers to their heirs not allow a large number of properties to be put back on the market, and thus contribute to a supply shock, thereby lowering prices? Well, no. This is what sociologists call the "Matthew effect," referring to this verse from the New Testament: "To those who have, more will be given, and they will have an abundance. But from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken away." Now, people inherit late, around the age of 50. When the children of the boomers inherit an apartment in Paris, Lyon or Marseille, this apartment will be kept in the estate because it has a lot of value and can be rented. The great transmission will indeed have an effect, but elsewhere. What will collapse and lose value? Grandma's house in Vierzon, which is not worth much. Everything found in the "diagonal of the void," the thermal leaks sold at low prices, etc. Certainly, the average prices may decrease, but real estate is not a single market. This decrease will hide a stagnation in large agglomerations, where there will not be many sales. And already, the property owners are preparing this transmission with clever fiscal instruments... Yes. There are a number of devices aimed at allowing the transmission to take place before the person's death in order to avoid excessive taxation. Among them, notably the systems of donation and division between bare ownership and usufruct. However, let us recall that in France half of the heirs receive less than 70,000 euros. And it is the large inheritances, well above this amount, that use these devices. There is, in a certain bourgeois right-wing press, an entire discourse aiming to say: "Be careful, if you tax inheritances, it will cause a collapse of the market!" Whereas in reality, an increase, well targeted, in this taxation would mainly affect the very large inheritances. It resembles a self-serving argument, to scare the 60% of homeowners in France.