ECB study on food price changes

An analysis by economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) shows that food price increases in supermarkets across the euro area after the 2026 energy shock are less widespread than the sharp rise seen in 2022. The study uses online price data up to September 2026 and focuses on how often prices change, rather than just the overall price level.

Tools used for price tracking

The study relies on the Daily Price Dataset (DPD), a resource developed by the ECB's PRISMA research network. It is created in partnership with the Bank for International Settlements' innovation hub and the Bundesbank under the Spectrum project. The DPD collects daily prices of supermarket products online and uses artificial intelligence to classify them according to standard consumer price categories.

Methodology for measuring price changes

Researchers in the study differentiate between the share of products with rising or falling prices and the average size of each change. They ignore temporary discounts and group the results by month. This method helps identify growing price increases on store shelves before they show up in overall inflation figures.

2026 price changes compared to 2022

The frequency of food price increases rose in March 2026 following higher energy prices. However, this increase was not as strong as in 2022. The ECB also observed a smaller difference between the number of price increases and decreases, with the average size of increases remaining stable. In 2022, frequent price hikes spread across many product categories, but in 2026, the spread of increases is more limited, and the highest price changes are lower.

French inflation data show mixed trends

French data from October 2026 indicate that food prices rose by 1.2% compared to the same period in 2025, slightly less than the 1.4% increase in September. Energy prices rose more sharply, from 21.3% to 24.1%, while overall inflation increased to 3.4%. These figures do not directly match the ECB's online price tracking but suggest that food prices are not rising as strongly as energy prices in France.

Food costs remain a key concern

The ECB highlights that food makes up about one-fifth of the euro area's standard consumption basket and a larger share of expenses for lower-income households. The study gives monetary authorities an early signal about how price increases are spreading. However, whether these changes are long-lasting will depend on future data.