Defense planners working with NATO have expressed concerns that Europe may not be prepared for a long-term war with Russia, as public support for military readiness remains low. At a recent conference on the future of European military coordination, officials warned that if hostilities were to erupt, the continent might struggle to sustain a prolonged conflict. This concern stems from the idea that Russia may be winning a "hybrid war" — a type of warfare that includes cyberattacks, disinformation, and political influence — which is weakening NATO's strategic options. Additionally, the rise of populist political movements in key European military states is complicating efforts to create a new coordination group of five European countries, including the UK, to take on a more prominent role in defense planning as the U.S. considers reducing its military presence in Europe.
Defense officials at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) noted that the European public may not support a long war, forcing NATO to focus on short-term conflict scenarios. A former British cabinet member admitted that the West has been poor at explaining the extent of the hybrid conflict with Russia, while a UK diplomat criticized past governments for failing to inform the public about the threat, making it difficult to justify increased defense spending. The UK government also avoided a proposal in its 2025 defense review to initiate a public discussion about the security risks facing Europe.
The end of the Cold War has allowed Russia to exploit divisions within European societies, according to one report, with populist leaders in countries like Poland, France, and Italy showing sympathy toward Moscow. Many of these leaders, including Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), support ending the conflict in Ukraine. The MSC conference, which kept the identities of speakers confidential, was made more urgent by the German government's recent accusation that Russia was behind a drone attack on Leipzig airport. The suspect, a Belarusian citizen with a Russian passport, reportedly entered Europe using an Italian tourist visa.
The MSC has been advocating for closer cooperation among the five main European military powers, including the UK, to strengthen European defense planning. As the U.S. considers changes to its troop deployment, Europe may soon be responsible for its own conventional defense. However, the ongoing hybrid war and the political shifts expected in next year's elections, including the rise of the AfD in Germany, are seen as major obstacles to a stronger European defense alliance. One idea being discussed is for the EU to issue a unified statement on the Russian threat, challenging populist leaders to either accept or reject it.
Italy is one of the E5 states most affected by Russia’s hybrid warfare, with its foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, warning of daily cyberattacks and the risk of Russian interference in the country’s upcoming elections. Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, has emphasized the growing Russian threat across various domains, including social media and AI. He has also warned that attributing public dissatisfaction to Russian disinformation could obscure deeper issues within Western societies.
In Italy, Roberto Vannacci, leader of the far-right Futuro Nazionale, has been accused of being a potential Russian ally in the upcoming election. Vannacci has dismissed these claims, calling them an attack on political dissent. To shift public perception of Ukraine, Crosetto has brought in Mykhailo Fedorov, the former Ukrainian defense minister, as an unpaid advisor. Fedorov has been instrumental in Ukraine’s drone production, with the country aiming to manufacture over 7 million drones by 2026. This growing industry is helping Europe modernize its military capabilities, even as it faces new challenges from hybrid warfare.
European Defence Concerns Amid Russia Hybrid War and Political Shifts
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