Holborn and St Pancras by-election is shaping up as a key contest between Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski. The by-election follows the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer, who previously held the seat, and is viewed as a crucial test for both candidates and their parties. Sagal, a childhood refugee from Somalia who arrived in the UK at age six, has emphasized her strong ties to the local community and her dedication to representing its needs. She argues that voters are looking for a representative who is visibly present and actively engaged with the area. Polanski, who does not live in the constituency, has faced criticism from Sagal for lacking local roots. She believes that voters prefer candidates who are deeply embedded in the community and can effectively advocate for their concerns. Sagal highlights her extensive community work and experience in local government, including her role as leader of Camden council, as evidence of her ability to bring about meaningful change. The Green Party has made notable progress in recent local elections, with successes such as the election of Zoe Garbett as the UK's first directly-elected Green mayor in Hackney and victories in areas like Lewisham. Labour, however, has lost several councils to the Greens, including Hackney, Waltham Forest, and Norwich, and became the largest party in Lambeth. In Sagal’s own ward, she narrowly won the previous election by just 60 votes against the Green candidate. Sagal acknowledges the challenge posed by the Green Party but believes her personal story and message are resonating with voters. She claims that some Green-leaning voters are considering switching to Labour due to her campaign and track record. She also addressed concerns that she might become a backbencher, stating that her experience and commitment would ensure she remains actively involved in policy-making. The by-election is also a test for Labour leader Andy Burnham, who has pledged to end rough sleeping and whose message is said to be resonating with the community. Polling expert Sir John Curtice estimated a 95 per cent chance that Labour would retain the seat, with Labour leading in recent YouGov MRP polls. He noted that the government's stance on Israel may be helping to reconnect with Muslim voters and that George Galloway's presence has not aided Polanski's campaign. If Labour loses, it could be seen as a setback for Burnham and Labour MPs hoping for a positive outcome after Starmer's leadership. Curtice described the by-election as a "make or break" moment for Polanski, though he noted the chance of a Green victory is low. Labour sources suggested the contest could serve as a test run for Burnham to consider an early general election.