Improved climate forecasts alone may not be enough to protect many of Africa's poorest livestock farmers from the effects of climate change, according to a new study led by the University of Sydney and Imperial College London. Published in Nature Sustainability, the research highlights that weather information must be paired with practical measures, such as access to supplementary feed, drought insurance, financial support, or better market access, to help farmers prepare for droughts. Combining accurate climate data with these risk-smoothing strategies can improve livelihoods, reduce inequality, and help preserve rangelands—areas of land where livestock graze—while overcoming challenges that have long hindered climate adaptation efforts. Lead author Dr. Matt Clark explained that climate variability is acting as an "inequity multiplier," meaning that it disproportionately affects the most vulnerable. If a near-record El Niño weather pattern develops, as predicted, it could worsen inequalities across southern Africa’s rangelands. The study found that many small-scale pastoralists—people who rely on raising livestock for their livelihood—lack the financial resources to act on climate forecasts. Wealthier farmers, by contrast, can reduce their herds before a drought and rebuild when conditions improve. Across southern Africa, millions of pastoralists depend on cattle, sheep, and goats grazing in vast rangelands that span countries like Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. For these communities, livestock are more than a source of income—they are also a form of savings, a means of food security, and a key part of cultural identity. As climate change increases the gap between good seasons and severe droughts, these communities face increasingly difficult choices about how to manage their resources. Dr. Gina Arena, science lead for Herding for Health at Conservation International, emphasized that with greater climate uncertainty comes greater risk. She stressed the importance of helping people make informed decisions and reducing the risks associated with implementing new strategies. Research like this, she said, plays a key role in achieving that goal. The researchers found that climate forecasts become much more effective when combined with support that allows households to respond before droughts occur. According to Dr. Clark, the encouraging aspect of this study is that it doesn't require new technology but instead applies existing knowledge in new ways. As weather forecasting becomes more accurate, the challenge now is to ensure that these forecasts are paired with practical support so that the people who need them most can benefit. The study’s framework for southern African pastoral systems could also be useful for livestock producers in other regions facing similar climate challenges, such as Australia. The methodology developed for southern African pastoralists could be applied in other areas with increasingly variable rainfall patterns. The researchers developed a model representing pastoral communities across seven southern African countries, using projected rainfall data from European climate models and real-world data on livestock, vegetation, and community wealth. Simulations showed that without adaptation, increasing rainfall variability would reduce household wealth, increase livestock losses, degrade grasslands, and widen inequality. When adaptation strategies were tested, access to forecasts alone had limited benefits because many households lacked the financial means to act. However, when risk-smoothing measures were combined with climate information, communities were able to learn from each other, and adaptation efforts became self-reinforcing, leading to broader success. Cosima Fröhner, a former researcher at Imperial College London, noted that mathematical modeling is helping to simulate the decisions of thousands of individual farmers under different climate conditions and adaptation strategies. As the model stabilizes, patterns and trade-offs between different approaches emerge from these simulated decisions.