Investment banking giant JP Morgan has admitted it is having difficulty predicting how oil prices will be affected by the ongoing US-Iran conflict. In a rare statement to investors, the bank said, "we simply don't know how to model the endgame," highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the situation. Initially, the bank assumed that the US would avoid crossing certain economic thresholds, such as oil prices rising above $100 a barrel, inflation reaching 4%, gasoline hitting $5 a gallon, and 10-year government borrowing rates reaching 5%. These were seen as potential triggers for a resolution to the conflict. However, six months into the conflict, many of these thresholds have already been crossed, and the path to resolution remains unclear. "For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view," said the commodities research team at JP Morgan. The lack of a clear endgame has left analysts struggling to make accurate predictions about future oil prices. US President Donald Trump recently suggested that the conflict with Iran would not end until after the November midterm elections. He claimed that oil prices would likely fall after the elections, but he also noted that the situation might take longer to resolve. High oil prices have contributed to rising living costs globally, particularly in fuel and energy. In response, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in over three years, signaling a potential for more increases in the coming years to help control inflation. However, Trump disagreed with the decision, arguing that inflation has been high for too long. JP Morgan analysts estimate that the "fair value" for oil in September would be around $90 a barrel, despite current prices being above $100. They noted that the market is factoring in the risk of further disruptions to global oil trade. Additional risks include conflicts in the Middle East, such as the seizure of a key area in the Bab al-Mandab Strait by Yemen's Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine also continues to affect global oil supply. With no clear signals of de-escalation, the assumption that oil supply disruptions are temporary is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.