The return of food inflation is expected in French supermarkets, though it is projected to arrive later than in neighboring countries and remain below 2.5 percent. Experts anticipate that food inflation will return in the coming months, despite efforts by large retailers to reassure consumers amid price increase demands from farmers and agribusiness. According to John Plassard, associate and head of investment strategy at Cité Gestion, a combination of meteorological and geopolitical factors makes this inflation inevitable, including the heatwave in Europe, El Niño in Asia, Australia, and parts of the American continent, as well as the war between Russia and Ukraine and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, food prices in large retail are stable or slightly deflated, notes Emily Mayer, head of studies at Circana. However, certain markets are beginning to show inflationary tendencies, according to David Lecomte, director of Consumer Insight at NielsenIQ. He cites the case of bottled water, driven by rising plastic prices, which retailers have passed on to shelves to avoid shortages during the summer. He also mentions fruits and vegetables, whose harvests have been affected by drought, with the breakage rate of packaged salads reaching 20 percent at the beginning of August. These initial increases are currently offset by decreases in coffee and cocoa prices, following surges in 2024 and 2025. While other European countries are already experiencing food inflation of 1.5 to 2 percent, France is delayed due to strict regulations on commercial negotiations between national brands and large retailers, recalls Emily Mayer. Agribusinesses only begin making price increase requests in November, with discussions continuing until March 1. Starting in April, despite retailers' promises to cut margins, food inflation is expected to affect other foods such as preserved and frozen fruits and vegetables, dairy products, and items with significant packaging costs. On average, food inflation is expected to reach 2 to 2.5 percent, predicts Circana. This rate is much lower than that of 2022 and 2023, due to shocks that are "less abrupt and widespread than during the war in Ukraine," according to David Lecomte, and because "all links in the chain will have to take a bit on themselves to avoid a drastic decrease in volumes," explains Emily Mayer. Consumers have not yet digested the 20 percent increase of recent years, notes the expert. According to a survey conducted by Circana at the beginning of summer, half of those surveyed say that beyond 3 percent, inflation would change their consumption patterns and quantities. In product categories where this threshold is exceeded, the consequences would be a contraction in volumes, a rise in retailer brands, and a moderation in the purchase of quality-marked products.